Ghana is set to get hotter over the coming decades, and a new energy-focused report from the Climate Impact Lab warns the country doesn’t have enough electricity growth on the horizon to protect everyone from the heat.The report projects about 19 additional heat-related deaths for every 100,000 people in Ghana by 2050. Researchers say Ghana is among 18 countries caught in what they call a “Mortality-Cooling Trap”, places where temperatures are rising fast, but electricity supply isn’t growing quickly enough to power the fans and air conditioners that could keep people cool and alive. About a third of Ghana’s population lives in these high-risk areas, and by 2050 the country could see over 4,000 additional heat-related deaths every year.Compared with its neighbours, Ghana’s situation is mixed. It’s projected to fare better than Burkina Faso (60 additional deaths per 100,000, tied to only a 0.06 GJ/capita rise in electricity) and Togo (32 additional deaths, 0.07 GJ/capita), but worse off than Nigeria and Côte d’Ivoire, neither of which appear on the trapped-countries list. Nigeria, in fact, is projected to see a much healthier 23% increase in electricity consumption (0.07 GJ/capita), giving it a better shot at using cooling technology to protect its people.Ghana’s story is part of a much bigger energy story playing out across the world. Climate-driven temperature changes are on track to contribute to about 430,000 additional deaths every year by 2050. How many of those lives can be saved will largely depend on access to electricity, especially the power needed to keep people cool during extreme heat, and the report finds that access to be dangerously unequal.“Air conditioning is a lifesaver, and climate change will no doubt lead to more AC adoption in today’s wealthy countries. Our research finds, however, that in too many countries around the world people will not be able to respond in the same way. The result is one of climate’s great cruelties, lots of death in the very countries that have contributed the least to climate change,” says Michael Greenstone, a co-founder of the Climate Impact Lab and the Milton Friedman Distinguished Service Professor in Economics at the University of Chicago.“These findings are a clarion bell that many countries do not have much time to improve the functioning of their electricity markets so they deliver inexpensive and reliable energy and identify other successful adaptations that can save lives.”The report finds that today only the world’s richest have the resources needed to power cooling. As temperatures rise, many middle-income countries are expected to expand their electricity supply and use more power for cooling, electricity consumption for adaptation is projected to grow seven times more in middle-income countries (0.21 GJ/capita) than in low-income countries (0.03 GJ/capita). In fact, the growth of electricity use per person in low-income countries is projected to be so small it would only be enough to power a single LED bulb for four months.AfricaNowhere is this energy gap clearer than in Africa, especially across the Sahel. The same poor countries projected to see so little increase in electricity also tend to be hotter than other countries, and the report identifies areas home to 676 million people trapped in this deadly combination of extreme heat and stagnant electricity supply. Around 377,000 people in these trapped areas are set to die annually by 2050. Thirteen of the 18 trapped countries sit in northern sub-Saharan Africa, including Niger, Mali, Burkina Faso, and Chad, with the rest concentrated in Southern Asia.The biggest increases in heat-related deaths across Africa are expected in Niger (68 additional deaths per 100,000), followed by Burkina Faso (60), Djibouti (55), Chad (47), and Mauritania (42). Yet these are also some of the countries expected to see only tiny increases in electricity supply. Niger, Burkina Faso, and Chad are projected to gain only about 0.06 to 0.07 gigajoules (GJ) of electricity per person, not nearly enough for many homes to run fans, air conditioners, or other cooling systems. In Chad, electricity use is expected to increase by 162%, but that’s only because the country is starting from such a low base; many people there could remain without reliable access to electricity.Elsewhere on the continent, the picture flips. Five countries across northern sub-Saharan Africa, Niger, Burkina Faso, Benin, and Nigeria among them, will see relative electricity increases exceeding 20% of current consumption, and cities like Libreville, Gabon, and Pretoria, South Africa, are projected to see some of the continent’s largest absolute jumps in electricity use, which could strain existing infrastructure. Southern Africa overall faces a gentler mortality outlook too, partly because the region is cooler and benefits from fewer cold-related deaths offsetting any rise in heat deaths.These trapped African countries sit in stark contrast to wealthier nations with similar climates. Countries across the Gulf, like Bahrain, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia, are just as hot as sub-Saharan Africa, but they consume far more electricity for cooling and are projected to see much bigger increases, leading to far fewer deaths. Take Niger and Saudi Arabia: the projected increase in electricity use per person in Niger will be one-ninth that of Saudi Arabia, and Niger is projected to lose 27,000 more lives annually by 2050 due to a warmer climate than its wealthier counterpart.“We’ve identified the places most at risk of seeing more people die from the heat and least able to power up ACs to save them, so people and governments can zero in on saving the greatest number of lives,” says Ashwin Rode, a fellow at the Climate Impact Lab and director of scientific research at the Energy Policy Institute at the University of Chicago (EPIC).“Communities will need to find ways to protect people from heat like improved energy access, employing heat early warning systems and action plans, expanded healthcare access, and targeted social programs. But as of now, many adaptation approaches remain untested. We’re working to change that.”The Climate Impact Lab says it is developing a global guide to help governments and communities identify the most effective ways to adapt to climate change. The report is the second in its Adaptation Roadmap series, which argues that alongside cutting greenhouse gas emissions, countries must also invest in practical measures, especially reforming electricity markets, that help people survive the growing impacts of climate change.