JENNIFER KAVANAGH2026年7月28日A historic shift has gathered pace across Asia this summer.今年夏天，一场历史性的转变在整个亚洲加速推进。Over the past several weeks, China has extended maritime patrols to cover Taiwan’s east coast, demonstrating its ability to encircle the island. It has intensified military, trade and diplomatic pressure on Japan and test-fired a submarine-launched ballistic missile that showcased its growing sea-based nuclear capability.在过去几周里，中国扩大了海上巡逻范围，将台湾东海岸纳入其中，展示了包围该岛的能力。它还加大了对日本的军事、贸易和外交压力，试射了一枚潜射弹道导弹，展示了其日益增强的海基核能力。With an eye on China’s growing power, other countries have drawn closer, revealing the contours of an emerging new security architecture.密切关注着中国日益增长的实力，其他国家纷纷拉近彼此的距离，展现出一个正在形成中的新安全架构的轮廓。Japan has strengthened defense ties with Australia, the Philippines and India, and it is discussing closer cooperation with South Korea. Japan has also scrapped its longstanding restrictions on defense exports and is moving to join South Korea as a regional arms supplier, while Australia has signed new agreements with Pacific Island nations, including a mutual defense pact with Fiji.日本加强了与澳大利亚、菲律宾和印度的防务关系，并正在讨论与韩国开展更紧密的合作。日本还废除了长期以来对防务出口的限制，正着手与韩国一道成为该地区的军火供应商；而澳大利亚则与太平洋岛国签署了新协议，包括与斐济签署的共同防御条约。Since President Trump’s return to office, uncertainty over his commitment to the defense of Asia has sparked warnings that Beijing could seize the opportunity to be more assertive, pushing U.S. allies to band together.特朗普总统重返白宫以来，关于他保护亚洲承诺的不确定性引发了警告，人们担心北京可能会利用这一时机表现得更加强硬，这促使美国的盟友联合起来。Those wheels are now turning, bringing new risks: Major changes in global security rarely unfold smoothly.这些齿轮如今正在转动，带来了新的风险：全球安全领域的重大变革鲜少能够一帆风顺。Yet this doesn’t have to mean we are entering an era of instability for an economically dynamic part of the world that remains vital to U.S. strategic interests. An order in which Asian countries assume greater responsibility for their own defense and rely more on one another — and less on an increasingly distracted United States — could ultimately prove stable and secure.然而，这并不意味着这一对美国战略利益至关重要且充满经济活力的地区正进入不稳定时代。一个由亚洲国家对自身防务承担更多责任、彼此之间更加相互依赖，并且减少对日益心有旁骛的美国之依赖的秩序最终可能被证明是稳定和安全的。At any rate, it is unavoidable. An overextended United States is less prepared to underwrite Asia’s security indefinitely than it once was.无论如何，这种局面都是不可避免的。力量过度分散的美国已不像过去那样有能力无限期地为亚洲的安全提供保障。The war with Iran has exposed the limits of U.S. military power and prompted Washington to divert military assets from other parts of the world — including the Asia-Pacific region — and Mr. Trump has made clear that he wants U.S. allies to contribute more to their own defense. His administration has already announced significant reductions in the U.S. military presence and commitments in Europe. No comparable plans for Asia have emerged yet.与伊朗的战争暴露了美军力量的极限，促使华盛顿将军力资产从世界其他地区调离，包括亚太地区，而特朗普也明确表示，他希望美国的盟友为自身防务做出更多贡献。他的政府已经宣布大幅减少在欧洲的军事存在和承诺。目前尚未出台针对亚洲的类似计划。A transition to a more self-reliant Asia must be managed carefully.向一个更加自力更生的亚洲过渡必须谨慎加以管理。If Beijing perceives a rapid weakening of American commitments or sees U.S. allies as newly vulnerable, it might conclude it has greater freedom to press its territorial and security ambitions, raising the specter of military confrontation.如果北京察觉到美国的承诺快速弱化，或认为美国的盟友会变得更加脆弱，它可能会认为自己拥有更大的自由度来推进其领土和安全野心，从而引发军事对抗的阴影。Fear of that possibility, and of U.S. abandonment, could quicken the arms race already gripping East Asia. China has steadily built its armed forces and expanded its nuclear arsenal. Japan has recently begun deploying longer-range missiles, South Koreans are debating whether their country should develop its own nuclear weapons and Australia is investing in nuclear-powered submarines and missile capabilities.对这种可能性以及美国可能抛弃亚洲的担忧可能会加剧东亚地区已经愈演愈烈的军备竞赛。中国一直在稳步建设军队并扩大核武库。日本最近开始部署射程更长的导弹，韩国人正在讨论本国是否应该研发核武器，而澳大利亚则正在投资核动力潜艇和导弹能力。Alarming as those developments sound, history has shown that Asian countries with diverse interests and forms of government can build working partnerships without deep U.S. participation. The 11-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations, founded in 1967, is often criticized as slow and indecisive in responding to shared challenges and has done little to counter China’s expansive territorial ambitions in the South China Sea. But ASEAN has helped to maintain peace among its members in a part of Asia previously torn by decades of war and provided a framework for Southeast Asia to engage with China.尽管这些发展听起来令人担忧，但历史表明，利益和政体各异的亚洲国家即使没有美国的深度参与，也能建立有效的合作伙伴关系。成立于1967年的东南亚国家联盟由11个成员国组成，它常常因应对共同挑战时反应迟缓、优柔寡断而饱受批评，且在遏制中国在南海的扩张性领土野心方面收效甚微。但是，在曾经遭受数十年战争创伤的亚洲地区，东盟帮助成员国之间维持和平，并为东南亚与中国进行接触提供了框架。A more balanced sharing of the security burden needn’t weaken deterrence. Deeper cooperation between countries such as Japan, the Philippines and Australia would actually strengthen the first line of defense against security threats, backed up by a gradually reduced — yet still robust — U.S. military presence.更均衡地分担安全负担并不一定会削弱威慑力。在逐渐减少但依然强劲的美军存在的后盾支持下，日本、菲律宾和澳大利亚等国之间更深层次的合作实际上会强化应对安全威胁的第一道防线。As U.S. allies become more capable and integrated, it is only fair that they shoulder more of the costs of their own protection, freeing up thinly stretched American forces to meet global security challenges elsewhere. The United States, for its part, could continue to coordinate closely with its Asia-Pacific allies, take the lead on tasks central to U.S. interests, such as keeping vital sea lanes open, and work to maintain stable relations with China.随着美国的盟友能力越来越强，并且日益紧密地融入体系，由它们承担更多自身防务的成本是合情合理的，这将使人手紧张的美军得以腾出精力，去应对其他地方的全球安全挑战。就美国而言，它可以继续与亚太盟友紧密协调，在维护关键海上航道畅通等关乎美国核心利益的任务中发挥主导作用，并致力于与中国保持稳定的关系。That kind of allied system would be stronger militarily, more durable over the long term than one that is overreliant on the United States and able to act collectively if American assistance is delayed or unavailable.相比于过度依赖美国的体系，这种盟友体系在军事上会更强大，从长远来看也更持久，并且在美方的援助推迟或无法获取时能够采取集体行动。At any rate, the Middle East is proof that heavy American involvement is no guarantee that international rivalries won’t explode into conflict. The United States — along with Israel — started the war with Iran, exposing America’s partners in the Persian Gulf to Iranian attacks and disrupting global trade. As a result, some Gulf states are rethinking their reliance on Washington and exploring ways to maintain their security through partnerships among themselves, which may even include Iran.无论如何，中东的局势证明，美国的深度介入并不能保证国际对抗不会爆发为冲突。美国与以色列一同挑起了与伊朗的战争，使美国在波斯湾的伙伴面临伊朗的袭击，并扰乱了全球贸易。因此，一些海湾国家正在重新思考对华盛顿的依赖，并探索通过彼此之间的合作伙伴关系来维护自身安全的方式，甚至可能包括将伊朗纳入其中。The United States will remain a power in the Pacific. But the strategic balance has already shifted. American allies and rivals alike are wealthier and more capable than they were a generation ago, and U.S. forces are overstretched. Asia is adjusting to that new reality.美国仍将是太平洋的一大强国。但战略平衡已经发生了转变。无论是美国的盟友还是竞争对手都比上一代人更加富有、更有能力，而美军则显得力不从心。亚洲正在适应这一新的现实。Jennifer Kavanagh是国防优先事项智库的军事分析主任，该智库倡导克制的美国国防政策。翻译：纽约时报中文网点击查看本文英文版。