Executive SummaryAn oil spike on the Iran escalation left equities flat to lower; Bitcoin absorbed the same shock and finished ahead of both major indices for a second week.The first downside core inflation print in five months lands a week before the FOMC meets, with policy still holding firmly restrictive above it.The 10-year yield is pressing back toward its highs while the dollar rests; the yield-and-dollar ceiling over this market has not lifted.The recovery has carried price into the decision zone: the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis at $69K overhead, the market's heaviest demand shelf just beneath.Near-price supply is tilting back toward support, exchange inflows keep fading, and the profit-taking fuel a rejection would need has not yet built.Accumulation has narrowed to the high-conviction 1k-10k BTC cohort; breadth is the missing on-chain ingredient.Off-chain, the confirmation this report has tracked for weeks arrived: ETF flows flipped positive, price sits above max pain, and hedging has collapsed to its cheapest in months.Altcoins are slipping against Bitcoin again, capital concentrating in the leader, and the Market Compass reads the same way: repairing, still risk-off.Macro InsightShockproof Against the Oil SpikeThe week's macro test arrived from the oil market. WTI crude spiked on the Iran escalation, the kind of exogenous shock that usually drags the whole risk complex lower, and equities behaved accordingly: the S&P finished the week lower while European stocks went nowhere.Bitcoin took the same shock and kept climbing, finishing ahead of both indices for the second week running. A market that rallies through bad news is a market where the marginal seller is spent; the resilience itself is the signal.Live ChartInflation Finally BendsCore inflation delivered its first downside print in five months, the closest the series has come to target since the post-2022 spike. One print is not a trend, but it lands at the right moment: the FOMC meets next week with the funds rate still holding more than a full point above core inflation.That gap is the definition of restrictive policy, and it gives the committee room. A signal that cuts are back on the table would release one of the macro brakes this report has tracked all year; silence leaves the market leaning on crypto-native fuel alone.Live ChartYields Push, the Dollar RestsThe bond market is not cooperating. The 10-year Treasury yield has climbed back within reach of its recent highs, keeping long-end pressure on every risk asset, while the dollar tells the friendlier half of the story, settling far below its winter extreme.The ceiling that has capped this cycle's advances is drawn on the chart: a 10-year yield above 4.45% and a dollar index above 99. The dollar side has nearly cleared; the yield side has not. A durable break below both marks remains the macro release valve.Live ChartOn-chain InsightArrival at the Decision ZoneBitcoin has climbed back from its late-June low, and the map above and below the price is now the whole story. Overhead sits the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis near $69K, the break-even of the past five months of buyers. Just beneath spot sits the heaviest demand shelf on the chart, roughly a tenth of supply centred on $63K, where the median coin last changed hands. The Realized Price floor waits far below.The first wall's asymmetry is well documented: approached from below in a downtrend, the break-even of recent buyers acts as a rejection zone, because the holders most inclined to sell are the ones about to be made whole. Above it, the profile thins into an air pocket all the way to the $84K wall. Reclaim the level, and there is little in the way of a fast repricing; fail there, and the shelf below becomes the test instead.Live ChartSupport Gathers Into the TestThe supply around the price is choosing sides. Proximity-weighted cost basis data splits nearby coins into support below spot and resistance above, and the support share has just overtaken its counterpart, leaving a regime that has been resistance-led since spring on the verge of flipping.A rejection at the wall would also need sellers, and that fuel is not yet loaded. The classic trigger arrives when STH Supply in Profit pushes through 54%, the point where enough recent buyers are whole to sell in size; it remains well short of that mark, and STH-SOPR is steadying at its break-even line rather than rolling over. Recent buyers are neither euphoric nor exiting.Live ChartSell-Side Steps BackThe exchange door has stopped revolving. Exchange Net Position Change swelled into a heavy inflow wave through early June as the market broke down, latent sell-side supply arriving at the venues. That wave has faded week after week and now runs at a fraction of its peak.Fading inflows without dominant outflows is a neutral regime: demand is absorbing what arrives, but the structural withdrawal trend of a healthy market has not returned. The confirmation to watch is a flip to sustained net outflows; that is the on-chain follow-through the ETF channel has just begun to supply.Live ChartConviction Without BreadthJune's rebound was bought broadly: the Accumulation Trend Score lit up across every wallet cohort into the lows. The past two weeks look different. The bid has narrowed to the 1k-10k BTC cohort, the wallets that have historically front-run durable turns, while the mid-tier cohorts have rotated back to distribution.Narrow accumulation cuts both ways. Concentrated conviction from large, patient wallets has led recoveries before; a base carried by one cohort is also structurally thinner than one carried by all of them. Breadth returning on the next push higher is the tell that separates a squeeze from a trend.Live ChartOff-chain InsightThe Redemption Streak BreaksFor weeks the caveat under every improvement was the same: derivatives were optimistic, but the ETF channel kept bleeding. That caveat just expired. US Spot ETF Flows have flipped positive, the first sustained stretch of net buying since the June redemption wave ran its course.Last week's edition described institutions that had stopped fleeing but not started buying. The flip is young and modest, but it converts a derivatives-led recovery into one with a spot bid behind it. Persistence, not size, is what to watch.Live ChartAbove the PinMax pain, the price where the largest share of open options expires worthless, capped this market from above all spring. Last week Bitcoin pressed it from below; it now trades just above the aggregate level, a line it sat far beneath at the February depths.Reclaiming the pin has historically accompanied the options market shifting into a friendlier regime, though the flip tends to be gradual. Holding above it into the coming expiries would put dealer hedging flows to work dampening moves rather than chasing them, turning the pin from ceiling into anchor.Live ChartHedges Off, Shorts FoldEvery edition since the June lows has tracked the same quiet process: traders closing shorts and letting downside protection expire. The tape has now caught up with it, loudly. The one-week 25-Delta Skew has collapsed to its cheapest in months, downside protection abandoned fastest at the front of the curve, and the move runs through the one-month tenor as well.Live ChartThe put/call complex confirms it. The Options Open Interest Put/Call Ratio has fallen to its lowest of the year, the volume ratio has halved from its June hedging spike, and perpetual funding has held below its neutral line every day of the past month. The optimism comes from hedges being lifted, not fresh leverage being piled on; squeezes built on that mix retrace less violently than funding-driven ones.Live ChartAlts Bleed, Bitcoin LeadsBeneath the surface, capital keeps choosing the leader. Every altcoin tier has spent years falling against Bitcoin, and that long bleed flattened out this spring into the most constructive altcoin floor of the downtrend. Over the past week the slide quietly resumed, small caps giving ground against BTC as the market pushed higher.That is the healthy version of the rotation. Bitcoin-led advances concentrate capital in the asset with the deepest bid before strength spills outward; alt-led strength this early in a repair is usually froth. The floor holding while Bitcoin leads is the sequence a durable recovery wants.Live ChartThe Compass AgreesGlassnode's Market Compass distils the market into scored lenses, and the ones that matter here sit well off their floors. Cycle Position reads deep-cycle accumulation territory and ticked higher this week alongside Investor Behaviour, where capitulation keeps fading. Derivatives gave back some ground on the week, but only after recovering from washed-out toward balanced: deleveraged rather than frothy.The composite still reads Risk-Off. Lenses repairing inside a defensive overall regime is exactly what an early turn looks like on this dashboard; it flips constructive with breadth and follow-through, not with one squeeze.Live ChartConclusionThis is still a bear-market rally until the market proves otherwise, and the proof has an address. The squeeze has done everything a squeeze can do: hedges are off, shorts are closed, funding is calm, and the ETF channel has flipped from drag to bid. What it has not done is clear the overhead. Bitcoin enters the week beneath the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis at $69K, with an air pocket beyond it and the $84K wall above that; beneath sit the $63K demand shelf and a support regime still forming. A decisive reclaim of $69K on persistent spot inflows opens the pocket above. Rejection there, with exchange inflows returning, sends the market back to the shelf.Ready to get ahead of markets and sharpen your foresight? Try Glassnode. Sign up or talk to sales.