Fundamental Market Analysis for July 28, 2026 GBPUSDBritish Pound/US DollarSAXO:GBPUSDFresh-Forexcast2004GBP/USD enters the European session near 1.33000 after the pound weakened noticeably over the previous few days. The sharp decline in oil prices has reduced the risk of a renewed energy-driven inflationary impulse in the United Kingdom, but it has also lowered expectations of tighter action from the Bank of England. The market largely expects the policy rate to remain unchanged at Thursday’s meeting. The UK domestic backdrop does not provide the pound with a sustainable advantage. Recent inflation data came in below expectations, while signs of spare capacity in the labor market allow the central bank to maintain a cautious stance. The new government’s fiscal policy creates additional uncertainty, as investors assess the cost of its announced measures and the possible impact of higher spending on government borrowing. Meanwhile, the dollar remains close to a one-month high, supported by the possibility of an unexpected Federal Reserve rate increase and resilient US Treasury yields. A substantial part of the decline in GBP/USD has already occurred, limiting the remaining downside potential. However, there is still no strong local factor capable of reversing the pound’s weakness. During the current session, the fundamental bias remains in favor of a further decline. Trading idea: SELL 1.33000, SL 1.33350, TP 1.32300