Core Bearish Logic

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Core Bearish LogicBitcoin / U.S. dollarBITSTAMP:BTCUSDMilo-BlakeCore Bearish Logic (Continuing to cap the upside) 📌1. Institutional short-term profit-taking; complete absence of fresh capital inflows ETFs have shifted from consecutive net inflows to net redemptions, and major asset managers are locking in profits in stages above the $66,000 level. This rally was driven by a short squeeze and expectations of cooling inflation rather than sustained long-term capital inflows; without volume to support the surge, a pullback driven by profit-taking sell-offs is inevitable. ✍2. High uncertainty regarding the Fed meeting; bulls are wary of chasing highs With only two trading days remaining before the July 29 interest rate decision, there is significant disagreement over whether a rate hike will occur. Capital is generally moving to the sidelines to avoid risk, showing little appetite for aggressive long positions. Should the decision signal a hawkish stance, the market would quickly revert to a downtrend; consequently, there is extremely low willingness to chase the price higher. 🌐3. Heavy overhead resistance from trapped positions; fading short-term bullish momentum A large volume of "trapped" positions—accumulated during previous rallies that failed to hold—sits in the $66,000–$66,400 range, with the previous high of $66,900 acting as a formidable resistance level. Hourly rebound volume continues to shrink; the bounce is merely a spike triggered by news rather than a sustained, one-sided rally, making "surge-and-pullback" the norm. Intraday Bearish Resistance Levels Primary intraday resistance for shorting: $66,000 – $66,400 (Optimal zone for entering short positions) Strong medium-term resistance: $66,800 – $67,000 (Previous high of the current rally; low probability of being reached intraday)