BTCUSD: Channel support test. Breakdown = short. Bounce = long.Bitcoin / US DollarCOINBASE:BTCUSDElibri_Eugen📊 Trade Plan: Scenario 1 — Breakdown (Short): 🔻 Entry: 63100 (on confirmed break below channel) 🎯 Take Profit 1: 61350 (demand zone) 🎯 Take Profit 2: 59350 (next demand zone) Scenario 2 — Bounce (Long): 🟢 Entry: on bounce from lower boundary 🎯 Take Profit: upper channel boundary 📉 Technical Picture (H4 & Daily): Ascending Channel: Price has been moving inside a rising channel since early July. Currently testing the lower boundary — decision point. MACD: Lines crossed below the zero mark. Histogram sloping down — bearish momentum building. Key level: A confirmed break below the channel opens the short. A bounce keeps the range alive for a long. 🗞️ Fundamental Note: ETF inflows +$273.87M through Thursday — third straight positive week. But headwinds are stacking: US struck Iran for 13th straight night, Houthis opened a second front in the Red Sea, WTI hit $92.50. July hike odds jumped to 34%. Trump's new 10-12.5% tariffs on 60 trading partners add trade war fears. BTC resilience is real, but the channel bottom is the line in the sand. ❌ Invalidation: Short invalidated if price bounces and holds above the channel. Long invalidated if price breaks and closes below.