Key TakeawaysGene Munster of Deepwater Asset Management increased his merger probability forecast from 80% to 90% following Tesla’s second-quarter earnings discussionElon Musk confirmed expanding integration between the companies while stating merger discussions require “appropriate process”Kalshi prediction market participants assign 41% probability to merger completion by March 2027More than $402,000 in wagers placed on Kalshi’s Tesla-SpaceX merger contractTesla stock declined approximately 4% after missing Q2 earnings expectations with negative free cash flowDuring Tesla’s second-quarter earnings discussion on Wednesday, Elon Musk faced a direct inquiry regarding a possible merger with SpaceX. While confirming increased integration between both entities, Musk indicated that an earnings call wasn’t the suitable forum for such discussions.“It’s got to be done with the appropriate process,” Musk said.Deepwater Analyst Increases Probability ForecastGene Munster from Deepwater Asset Management expressed surprise that the merger inquiry received any consideration during the call, interpreting it as an encouraging development.“Going into the call, I thought there was an 80% chance the two companies come together in the next few years. I’m raising that to 90%,” Munster posted on X.Munster emphasized that Musk personally pointed out the expanding convergence between both organizations, especially regarding Terafab, a semiconductor manufacturing initiative supported by both companies.Commercial partnerships already exist between the organizations. SpaceX utilizes Tesla’s energy storage technology for its artificial intelligence computing facilities. Tesla has incorporated SpaceX’s Grok AI technology into its vehicle lineup and completed direct vehicle sales to SpaceX.Space Exploration Technologies Corp., SPCXMusk has previously discussed his companies moving toward “convergence” in a social media post on X.Betting Markets Show 41% Merger ProbabilityKalshi, a federally regulated prediction platform, displays over $402,000 in total wagers on its “When will Tesla and SpaceX merge?” market.Market participants currently assign a 41% likelihood to a merger completing before March 1, 2027. The probability increases marginally to 45% for completion before May 1, 2027.Musk has demonstrated a history of consolidating his business ventures. He integrated xAI into SpaceX prior to its June public offering. Back in 2016, Tesla completed a Solar City acquisition, incorporating it into Tesla’s energy segment. That transaction triggered a significant shareholder legal challenge, which concluded favorably for Musk in 2022.SpaceX completed its public market debut in June, temporarily achieving a $2.6 trillion market capitalization. Subsequently, the company experienced market value reductions approaching $1 trillion, accompanied by concerns regarding valuation metrics and anticipated insider selling activity.Tesla stock experienced a nearly 4% decline in extended trading Wednesday. The electric vehicle manufacturer fell short of second-quarter earnings projections and posted negative free cash flow figures.SpaceX shares similarly declined more than 6% during the trading session.Neither organization has issued a formal merger announcement or proposal.The post Tesla-SpaceX Merger Probability Jumps to 90% Following Musk’s Earnings Call Remarks appeared first on Blockonomi.