SOX Time@Mode #1: The Speedlines Cross Friday at 12,424.PHLX SemiconductorNASDAQ_DLY:SOXIvanLabrieEveryone called the top in semiconductors last month. On my own timeframes, only one of them agreed. The daily turned down. The weekly and the monthly are both still bullish. That is the whole disagreement, and the chart picks a side this week. Look at the two panes. On the monthly, the advance off the April 2025 low is intact and the structure has not broken. On the daily, the selloff printed a drawdown north of 20% off the June high, and then the low bounced off the uptrend speedline rather than cutting through it. At 12,410 the index has clawed back to about 15% under that high. Real damage, still confined to the lower timeframe. Friday is the first test. The 50% speedlines off the uptrend and the downtrend converge at 12,424, and price is already sitting on it. If that settles nothing, the 25% speedlines cross on August 7 at 13,055. Everything that decides this falls between those two dates. The Fed meets on the 28th and 29th. Meta and Microsoft report after the close on the 29th, Amazon on the 30th. The next round of capex numbers lands on top of a rate decision, and then the chart reaches its second crossing. Higher up sit two Warsh-era FOMC levels, 13,291.75 and 13,876.77. Those are the prices that baked in expectations going into those meetings, the same construction that has been capping QQQ at 731.62. Semis have to clear both before the monthly bull case means anything again. This week's earnings argued for more upside. Texas Instruments guided the September quarter up around 8% sequentially, analog reaccelerated, embedded turned after lagging the entire correction, and data center showed up on their growth list. Cloud growth accelerated at Alphabet. Nobody reported a demand problem. Then look at how the buyers are paying for it. Alphabet doubled quarterly capex year over year, went free cash flow negative, halted buybacks entirely, and raised 49.6 billion in equity and preferred in June with AI infrastructure named in the use of proceeds. Tesla capex is up 142% year over year and went free cash flow negative for the first time since early 2024. For three years this build came out of operating cash flow. A self funded build barely notices the rate path. An issued one does. **Holding 12,424:** the daily loses the argument and 13,055 becomes the next test rather than a ceiling, with the two Warsh levels above it. **Losing it:** the daily read carries, and the monthly still has to break before the rest matters. Only then am I looking at 9,755, and 7,095 into year end. Invalidation is a monthly reclaim of 14,246.96. That prints and the bear case is finished outright, no reinterpretation. Macro and Time@Mode, same as always. Everything I publish is timestamped.