(Investing) – Goldman Sachs has raised its near-term forecast for European gas prices, flagging a slower-than-expected recovery in Persian Gulf liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports amid ongoing tensions in the Middle East.Goldman Sachs analyst Samantha Dart said she now assumes Persian Gulf LNG exports will normalize in October, pushed back from a previous estimate of July. The delay reflects continued disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global chokepoint that handles roughly one-fifth of the world’s petroleum consumption and 20% of global LNG exports.Dart estimates the resulting reduction in balance-of-summer global LNG supply, at 16 million tonnes per annum, or 4%, will leave Northwest European gas storage near 67% full by the end of October, the start of winter, down from a prior estimate of 74%. Storage is projected to end winter, in late March, at 28% full, assuming average temperatures over the season.As a result, Goldman Sachs raised its forecast for Dutch TTF gas prices for the balance of the third quarter and fourth quarter of 2026 to 60 and 53 euros per megawatt-hour, respectively, up from previous forecasts of 41 and 40 euros. The bank’s full-year 2027 forecast was also raised, to 31 euros per megawatt-hour from 30 euros previously.“With our estimated tightness in winter gas balances in Europe leaving little room for error, we expect that, for the remainder of this summer, TTF will price very close to the 65 EUR/MWh threshold,” Dart said, referring to a level it believes discourages Asian LNG demand.The analyst said risks to the bank’s near-term forecast remain skewed to the upside, and continued to recommend that gas users hedge against potential winter price spikes. Under a scenario in which Middle East energy exports normalize only gradually through 2027, she estimates TTF would need to move above 100 euros per megawatt-hour to sufficiently curb Asian demand.Conversely, a faster-than-expected recovery in Hormuz flows could see prices fall back to around 40 euros, in line with the coal-to-gas switching threshold.Longer term, Goldman Sachs maintained its bearish view on 2028 and 2029 TTF prices, forecasting 19 and 16 euros per megawatt-hour, respectively, though it cautioned that this outlook depends on Hormuz being fully open for shipping.The bank noted further downside risks from new U.S. LNG export projects and potential increases in coal and renewable generation in Asia.