Approaching 4hr 200SMA & Major ResistanceSuper Micro Computer, Inc.BATS:SMCITime_to_get_greedy_yaheemeeSMCI Other than the obvious, such an interesting set up with 2hr currently consolidating inside a symmetrical triangle right below key levels. At first, I thought it was a rising wedge so made me short term bearish with a pullback at resistance to possibly 28.5-25 before a solid breakout to the upside and rally into ER. Now I'm bullish going into tomorrow and think we have a great chance of strong move after breakout of triangle sending it past both the 4hr 200SMA and major resistance around 33 to 35-36.50+ Also if INTC sustains rally, it can push semis up and give SMCI the push it needs. Well I plugged in my charts to Chatgpt and here's the context: https://chatgpt.com/share/6a62f669-42ac-83e8-83a9-4e6c6104ec5a https://chatgpt.com/share/6a62f669-42ac-83e8-83a9-4e6c6104ec5a Me: Correct me if I'm wrong, looks like a bearish rising wedge headed right into resistance and the 4hr 200SMA. I feel like SMCI needs to take a breather and is likely to reject before a retest and breakout to the upside so maybe tomorrow will be red and rally starting next week into earnings. What do you think? ChatGPT: I actually think your thesis is reasonable. I wouldn't say it's definitely a bearish rising wedge, but it's one of the more likely interpretations given what I'm seeing. What I see On the 1-hour chart: The advance from ~$24 has become progressively less impulsive. Price has been making higher lows, but the highs around $31.8-32.2 haven't expanded much. The trend lines are converging into what could become a rising wedge. You're also pressing into the descending trendline from prior highs around $32.8-33.2. Those are all conditions where buyers often start taking profits. Weekly chart The weekly actually gives me a little more optimism than the hourly. Positive: Huge bullish engulfing candle (+29%). Massive volume. Closed back above prior support around $30. Buyers defended the low near $24 very aggressively. Negative: Price is still below major resistance. Still under the longer-term downtrend. There's overhead supply between roughly $33-40, where a lot of trapped shareholders may sell into strength. So the weekly says trend is improving, but not yet fully bullish. The 4-hour 200 SMA I think this is probably the biggest obstacle. The 4H 200 SMA is watched by: swing traders algorithms institutions It's common to see: Strong rally into it Rejection Pullback Higher low Second attempt Breakout That sequence is actually healthier than blasting straight through it. My expected path If I had to assign probabilities: 45% Reject around 32.2-33.0 Pull back toward 29.8-30.5 Consolidate Continue higher into earnings 30% Sideways between 30.5-32.5 for several days Build energy Break higher next week 25% Shorts get squeezed Break above 33 Momentum carries toward 35-37 much sooner Why I don't want to get too bearish SMCI is one of those names where: short interest has often been elevated, retail attention is high, options positioning can create fast gamma-driven moves. Sometimes what looks like a textbook bearish wedge ends up resolving upward because shorts pile in too early. Levels I'd watch Bullish Hold 31 Hold 30.5 Hold 30 Break 32.3 Close above 33 Bearish Lose 30 Lose 29.5 Then I'd expect a move toward 28-28.5 Your earnings thesis I actually think this part makes sense: Rally → brief rejection → higher low → earnings run. That's a fairly common pattern for stocks coming off a sharp rebound. If buyers defend the first pullback instead of giving back the entire move, it suggests institutions are accumulating rather than simply chasing. The one thing I'd avoid is assuming tomorrow has to be red. With SMCI, a positive AI or semiconductor headline, or strong buying from options-related flows, could invalidate the wedge quickly. The more important signal than a one-day move is how price behaves around $32.5-$33. A rejection with heavy selling volume would support your thesis. A strong close above that area with expanding volume would make me much more bullish. Overall, I'd lean slightly bullish over the next few weeks, but I also think a 5-10% pullback before another leg higher would be a healthy and fairly normal outcome. Your scenario of "take a breather, retest support, then rally into earnings" is one of the more plausible paths from a technical perspective. Me: https://chatgpt.com/share/6a62f669-42ac-83e8-83a9-4e6c6104ec5a Could that be a symmetrical triangle? Yes, I actually think a symmetrical triangle is a better interpretation than a rising wedge based on your updated drawing. Here's why: Why it looks like a symmetrical triangle Upper trendline: You're connecting a series of lower highs (~31.9 → 31.8 → 31.6), which is valid. Lower trendline: You're connecting higher lows (~30.2 → 30.6 → 30.9), also valid. Both trendlines are converging toward an apex, which is the defining feature of a symmetrical triangle. Since the move into the triangle came from a sharp rally ($24 to $32), this pattern is often viewed as a continuation pattern, though it can break either direction. What would make me bullish? An hourly close above 31.9-32.1 with above-average volume. Follow-through above 32.5. A break of the descending trendline and then the larger resistance near 33.0-33.3. That would target roughly: 33.5 34.5 Potentially 36-37 if momentum and gamma accelerate. What would make me bearish? If the lower trendline fails: First support: 30.8-31.0 Then 30.2-30.4 Stronger support around 29.5-30.0, where I'd expect buyers to show up. One thing to keep in mind The triangle is forming directly beneath major resistance: the long-term descending trendline, the 4-hour 200 SMA (as you mentioned), and previous supply around 32.5-33. That means even if the triangle breaks upward, the breakout could initially stall into that resistance. It's not uncommon to see: Triangle breakout. Resistance rejection near 33. Pullback/retest of the breakout. Stronger rally into earnings. So I still like your broader idea that SMCI may need a brief pause before a larger move, but the pause could happen inside this triangle rather than from a classic bearish wedge. My current probability split: 🟢 55%: Bullish breakout from the triangle, with resistance around 33 causing a brief pause. 🟡 30%: Breakdown to the 30-30.5 area before resuming higher. 🔴 15%: Failure below 29.5, which would invalidate the bullish consolidation and suggest a deeper retracement. Overall, I think your updated triangle drawing fits the current price action better than the original wedge. The next 1-3 hourly candles should provide a strong clue about which side wins. Any thoughts? What are your moves? Comment below! 🤝🏽 GLTA