USOIL daily analysis 21/07/2026WTI CRUDE OILTVC:USOILantreas_themistokleous_exnessOil prices edged lower after strong gains in the previous two sessions as traders balanced escalating tensions between the US and Iran with renewed diplomatic efforts to secure a ceasefire. Despite ongoing military strikes and retaliatory attacks, reports of proposals for a temporary halt in hostilities eased some supply concerns. However, risks remain elevated as threats to key shipping routes in the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea continue to fuel fears of potential supply disruptions. With global oil inventories already tight, any disruption to maritime infrastructure could trigger renewed price volatility. From a technical perspective, crude oil has extended its recovery but is now showing signs of losing momentum after failing to sustain a move above the recent highs near $84. Price has climbed above the 50-day SMA, indicating improving short-term sentiment, but it remains below the 100-day SMA, suggesting the broader trend is still cautiously bearish. The Bollinger Bands have begun to widen, reflecting increased volatility during the recent rally, while the Stochastic oscillator remains in overbought territory and is beginning to turn lower, pointing to the risk of a short-term pullback. A break above $84 would strengthen the bullish case and expose the 100-day SMA around $87.60, whereas failure to hold above the 50-day SMA could trigger a corrective move back toward the $76–78 support zone. Disclaimer: The opinions in this article are personal to the writer and do not reflect those of Exness.