Alphabet's negative free cash flow weigh on sentiment

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Alphabet's negative free cash flow weigh on sentimentAlphabet Inc. Class ABATS:GOOGLinkicho_exnessGOOGL | 1D Technical Analysis — Jul 27, 2026 Alphabet reported Q2 with total revenue up 24% and Google Cloud growing 82%, surpassing last quarter's 63% growth rate. Cloud operating margin expanded to 35.6% from 20.7% a year ago. However, the cash flow picture darkened considerably. Free cash flow turned negative at -$59B in Q2, down from Q1's already negative -$150B, as the company spent $449B in capex ytd. CFO Porat stated capex will be "meaningfully" expanded further, with full-year guidance now around $205B and 2027 consensus pointing toward $257B. On the negative side, search ad revenue growth slowed 2 percentage points year-over-year, EPS of $9.11 missed the $9.85 estimate, SpaceX and xAI equity gains boosted reported income, Gemini 3.5 Pro trails frontier models in certain benchmarks, and competition concerns remain. GOOGL has been in a well-defined descending channel since the May peak near 405, with price grinding lower through 375, 350, and 330. Price is currently trading around 320, with EMA21 (349.40) fractionally below EMA78 (351.04), forming a flat, converging EMA configuration that reflects the indecisive price action of recent weeks. The channel has contained price cleanly, with the 350 level marking the channel upper bound and 315 the lower bound hit in early July. RSI at 32.46 is approaching oversold territory, near the lowest reading since the April base, a level that previously marked meaningful recoveries. The 350 level is a critical pivot, having acted as both support and resistance multiple times throughout the channel. With earnings now out and the immediate reaction absorbed, the key question is whether the cash flow and capex concerns override the strong cloud and revenue beat. Key levels to watch: Resistance: 330 / 350 / 375 (channel upper bound) / 405 (cycle high) Support: 310 / 290 Bear case: Failure to close above 330 opens a plunge toward 290 upon breaking below the support at 310. Persistent negative free cash flow, escalating capex guidance, and slowing search growth provide fundamental justification for a continued re-rating lower within the channel. Bull case: Closing at 330 with RSI near oversold levels sets up a technical bounce toward the channel’s upper bound at 350. The 82% cloud growth rate, expanding cloud margins, and 24% top-line growth represent a genuinely strong fundamental picture that could support a channel breakout if the capex narrative is reframed positively. Bias is neutral to cautiously bearish — the descending channel remains intact, both EMAs are overhead resistance, and negative free cash flow at this scale is a new and meaningful concern. RSI nearing oversold provides tactical bounce potential, but a close above 350 and EMA78 is needed before any structural improvement can be called.