Volkswagen chokes between U.S. tariffs and Chinese pressureVolkswagen AG PrefXETR_DLY:VOW3ActivTradesBy Ion Jauregui – Analyst at ActivTrades Volkswagen is facing a challenging period marked by international trade pressure, slowing demand and the structural transformation of the automotive industry. The German manufacturer reported a 10% decline in operating profit during the second quarter, to €3.5 billion, and has revised its forecasts downward, now acknowledging that its revenues in 2026 could fall by up to 3%. The company estimates that U.S. tariffs could have an impact of up to €5 billion annually, adding pressure to margins already affected by the high costs of the transition towards electric vehicles and investment in new technologies. Volkswagen finds itself caught between two fronts. On the one hand, U.S. trade barriers are penalising its exports and increasing costs. On the other, the offensive from Chinese electric vehicle manufacturers, with more competitive cost structures and rapid technological innovation, is reducing the historical advantage of European manufacturers. China, which for years was one of the key markets for the German group, has become one of its main challenges, with growing competition from local brands such as BYD in the electric vehicle segment. The stock loses ground after the Christmas rally On the stock market, Volkswagen continues to reflect investors’ doubts about the group’s ability to restore profitability. The share price reached a low of €69.20 on July 1 and was trading around €72.66 during the first hours of Monday’s session. Since the end of the Christmas rally, the stock has been losing ground from highs of €109.15, without managing to surpass the previous high of €114.20 reached in March 2025. This performance has resulted in a gradual price decline over recent months. From a technical perspective, the daily chart’s point of control shows a highly polarised volume distribution around the previous range located at €90.82, a level that could act as a reference point for a potential price recovery. The MACD remains in negative territory, although accompanied by a positive histogram that points towards a possible stabilisation of the bearish movement. The RSI stands at 41.08%, entering moderate oversold territory and showing initial signs of recovery. The 50-session moving average crossed below the 200-session moving average in March, confirming a technical deterioration that subsequently extended the decline. Meanwhile, the ActivTrades Europe Market Pulse market sentiment indicator currently shows a neutral risk environment, with no signs of excessive positioning or extreme investor sentiment. Volkswagen remains one of Europe’s major industrial benchmarks, but the market now demands clear results in efficiency, cost reduction and the ability to compete in a new era dominated by electrification and Asian competition. ******************************************************************************************* The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication. All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance and forecasting are not a synonym of a reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acting on the information provided does so at their own risk. Political risk is unpredictable. Central bank actions can vary. Platform tools do not guarantee success.