A steady headline unemployment rate would offer only limited reassurance to the RBA given both banks' emphasis on broader signs of labour market slack building beneath the surface. Westpac's focus on a corrected underemployment series showing a material rise, rather than the previously reported sideways trend, points to a softer underlying jobs picture than earlier data suggested. CBA's flagged risk of a downside surprise to 4.3% could briefly support the case for a more dovish RBA reading, though both banks agree the medium term trend is toward gradually higher unemployment. For the Australian dollar, a steady headline print is likely to be a non-event, but any softer than expected outcome, particularly a dip toward 4.3% or weaker underemployment detail, would likely weigh on the currency by reinforcing bets on a more dovish (or at least less hawkish) RBA path. With CBA noting unemployment would still sit above the RBA's own 4.2% forecast for the June quarter, the data keeps pressure on the central bank to reconcile its outlook with incoming figures, a dynamic AUD traders are likely to stay sensitive to into the next RBA meeting.Earlier:Economic and event calendar in Asia - Australian jobs reportWestpac and CBA both see steady June jobs numbers on the surface, but warn of building slack beneath, led by rising underemployment.Summary:Westpac and CBA both forecast June employment to rise 15k with unemployment steady at 4.4%Both expect the participation rate to hold at 66.7%Westpac says a corrected ABS underemployment series, following a reported systems error, shows underemployment rising materially rather than moving sidewaysWestpac points to new unofficial underemployment measures also lifting well above the official rateCBA flags a risk unemployment could round down to 4.3%, but says leading indicators point to a gradual rise in unemployment over the rest of 2026CBA notes its 4.4% forecast would still sit above the RBA's own 4.2% estimate for the June quarter, though this is not yet a major concern for the central bankEconomists at Westpac and Commonwealth Bank of Australia both expect Australia's June labour force data to show employment rising by 15,000 and the unemployment rate holding at 4.4%, but each is warning that softer signals beneath the headline numbers point to a labour market losing momentum.Westpac said the May labour force survey had given a clearer read on the underlying trend now that recent sources of noise had faded, and argued genuine weakness is starting to form after employment growth effectively stalled over April and May. The bank noted employment had expanded around 26,000 a month in the first quarter before that stalling took hold, leaving the employment to population ratio 0.7 percentage points below its recent high. Westpac also flagged that the Bureau of Statistics had disclosed a systems error in its initial May release that had produced incorrect underemployment figures. Once corrected, Westpac said, those figures materially change the picture, showing underemployment rising rather than moving broadly sideways as first thought, a shift reinforced by newer unofficial underemployment measures that have climbed well ahead of the official rate. Westpac argued that both weaker demand for labour and cost of living pressures affecting supply are likely contributing, and that persistence in these trends would build the case for broader slack across the labour market.CBA struck a similar tone on the headline numbers, forecasting unemployment to hold at 4.4% and the participation rate to stay unchanged, while acknowledging a risk that unemployment could round down to 4.3% given how close the current rate sits to that threshold. The bank pointed to leading indicators including capacity utilisation and job advertisements as evidence of a gradual upward trend in unemployment through the rest of the year. CBA noted its 4.4% projection would remain below its own and the RBA's estimate of the non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment, but still well above the central bank's most recent forecast of a 4.2% average for the June quarter. The bank said this gradual drift higher is unlikely to unsettle the RBA in the near term, given unemployment remains low by historical standards and sits below estimates of full employment. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.