EURUSD at the edge of the rangeEuro / U.S. DollarFOREXCOM:EURUSDCBWhisperEURUSD at the edge of the range: Support is holding, but sellers have not left EURUSD has returned to the 1.13680 area, which has already stopped the decline several times. Buyers are still defending the level, but the technical indicators suggest that pressure on the euro remains. 🟢 Facts The MACD is in negative territory, with the red histogram continuing to expand. The RSI is around 39.8. Momentum remains bearish, although the pair is not yet oversold. The macroeconomic backdrop is mixed. Germany’s Ifo Business Climate Index rose to 86.6, with a noticeable improvement in the expectations component. However, the assessment of current conditions declined. In the United States, durable goods orders increased by only 0.3%, missing the consensus forecast. In other words, Germany gave the euro a reason for optimism, while the US data raised doubts about the strength of the American economy. Neither side, however, has managed to take firm control. 🟡 Expectation The Federal Reserve is meeting on July 28–29. Polymarket currently assigns approximately an 82% probability to no change in rates and a 17% probability to a 25-basis-point increase. EURUSD may therefore remain compressed near support ahead of the decision. A rate hold is largely priced in—the tone of the statement and press conference will be more important. 🔴 Market Whisper The market suspects that a July pause may be a temporary break rather than the end of the tightening cycle. Polymarket also indicates an elevated probability of another rate increase later in 2026. This is not an official forecast. However, if the Fed signals that an autumn increase remains possible, the dollar could gain fresh momentum and place EURUSD support under significant pressure. Trade Setup — Short Entry: 1.1390–1.1400 Stop Loss: 1.1418 Take Profit 1: 1.1368 CBWhisper Verdict EURUSD is trading near the lower boundary of its range. Sellers currently hold the technical advantage: the MACD is negative, the RSI remains below its neutral zone, and the price is forming a declining structure. However, 1.13680 has not been broken yet. As long as hourly candles continue to close above it, a continuation of the decline remains unconfirmed. Officially, support is holding. Unofficially, the market is already listening for any Fed whisper about an autumn rate increase. This material is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.