USDJPY: Everyone Is Calling The Top…USD/JPYOANDA:USDJPYEdgeTradingJourneyAfter reviewing the latest price action alongside the COT Report, seasonality and retail positioning, my higher-timeframe bias remains constructive in the short term. From a technical perspective, USDJPY continues to print a sequence of higher highs and higher lows on the Daily timeframe. Price is respecting the ascending channel and continues to trade above the previous breakout structure, confirming that buyers are still in control. That said, the pair is now trading deep inside a premium pricing zone while approaching the 1.5 Fibonacci extension. This is typically not an area where I look to initiate new long positions. Instead, I begin monitoring for signs of exhaustion and potential distribution. The Daily Breaker located around the 160.00–160.50 area remains, in my opinion, the most attractive objective should the market transition into a corrective phase. COT Analysis The Commitment of Traders data continues to support the broader bullish trend. Large Speculators remain net long the US Dollar, while positioning in the Japanese Yen is still heavily net short, confirming that institutional money continues to favour USD strength over JPY. Seasonality Seasonality introduces an important note of caution. Historically, the end of July and the beginning of August have produced weaker performance for USDJPY across multiple historical datasets. Retail Sentiment Retail positioning currently shows approximately 80% of traders holding short positions. From a contrarian perspective, this continues to favour additional upside before any larger reversal occurs. My Trading Plan My preferred scenario is for price to engineer one final liquidity sweep above the recent highs around 164.20–165.00, trapping additional breakout buyers and forcing late short sellers out of the market.