SOL/USDT 4h — short: downtrend intact, band leans to the 71.4 flSOL / TetherUSBINANCE:SOLUSDTneuportalSOL is trading around 74 on the 4h and the picture is bearish-leaning. Price is capped under the 20/50 EMAs, the regime read is a downtrend, and momentum is weak — RSI near 31 with ADX around 23, so sellers are in control but without a violent trend behind the move. After the rejection from the mid-70s the path of least resistance is lower. I frame the objectives with the empirical band rather than a hand-drawn target — the core 50% and wide 80% zones of SOL's own realised moves over the next 24 bars, built from 41 independent windows (open-source NeuPortal Market Compass on the chart): First downside zone: the 50% core low around 71.41 — a level the distribution reaches in roughly a quarter of comparable windows. Extended downside: the 80% band floor near 68.70 if momentum accelerates. Median sits at ~74.05, so the edge here is context (trend + weak RSI), not a wide directional skew — worth sizing accordingly. Invalidation: acceptance back above the mid-70s and into the upper core (~76.6) neutralises the short — that is where the band says the bearish read has failed, not a round number I picked. The honest caveat: this is a probability lean, not a certainty. A band is scored on coverage, not on one call landing. No method reliably beats a liquid market, and anyone promising that is selling something. Educational content — not financial advice, and not a betting tip.