EURUSD H4 22th JulyEuro vs. US DollarFX:EURUSDIIAFEURUSD | Bullish Retracement Before the Next Bearish Leg? | Daily Analysis (D1) EURUSD remains in a medium-term bearish trend after breaking several key support levels. Following the recent decline, the market has entered a consolidation phase, suggesting that price is currently accumulating orders before its next major move. From a Smart Money Concept (SMC) and ICT perspective, the primary trend remains bearish, while the current price action appears to be a corrective retracement rather than a confirmed trend reversal. Key Technical Highlights Primary Trend: Bearish Current Market Condition: Consolidation / Range Market Structure: Lower Highs and Lower Lows remain intact. Price is trading within a Discount Zone. Buy-Side Liquidity: Above 1.1500 – 1.1528 Sell-Side Liquidity: Below 1.1320 Major Resistance: 1.1500 Key Support: 1.1320 Smart Money Concept (ICT) Analysis After a strong bearish impulse, the market has transitioned into a consolidation range, a common sign of order accumulation before the next directional move. The most likely scenario is a bullish retracement toward the 1.1500–1.1528 resistance zone to collect Buy-Side Liquidity. If bearish confirmation appears in this area, sellers may regain control and continue the higher-timeframe downtrend. Fibonacci Analysis Using the latest bearish impulse, the 1.1500–1.1528 zone aligns closely with the 61.8%–78.6% Fibonacci retracement, often referred to as the Optimal Trade Entry (OTE) zone in ICT methodology. This confluence significantly increases the probability of a bearish reversal from this area. Bullish Scenario (Corrective Move) As long as price remains above 1.1345, buyers may push the market toward the following targets: 🎯 Target 1: 1.1450 🎯 Target 2: 1.1500 🎯 Target 3: 1.1528 Bearish Scenario (Primary Bias) If price reaches the 1.1500–1.1528 resistance zone and forms a Liquidity Sweep, followed by a Market Structure Shift (MSS) or Change of Character (CHoCH) on lower timeframes, the next bearish impulse may begin. Potential downside targets: 🎯 Target 1: 1.1320 🎯 Target 2: 1.1255 🎯 Target 3: 1.1170 Trading Plan Bias: Bearish (After the Correction) Sell Zone: 1.1500 – 1.1528 Stop Loss: Above 1.1577 Targets: 1.1320 → 1.1255 → 1.1170 Confirmation: Wait for a bearish MSS or CHoCH on the H1 or M15 timeframe before entering a short position. Conclusion EURUSD remains in a well-defined bearish trend, while the current consolidation appears to be a corrective phase rather than a bullish reversal. As long as the 1.1500–1.1528 resistance zone holds, the overall bearish outlook remains valid. This area could provide a high-probability selling opportunity after liquidity is collected, potentially leading to the continuation of the broader downtrend. What do you think? Will buyers push EURUSD into the premium zone before sellers take control again, or is the market preparing for a deeper bullish reversal?