EUR/USD Starts with a Gap Upward MoveEUR/USDOANDA:EURUSDNouzTraderEUR/USD began the new trading week with a moderate bullish gap, recovering and holding steady above the 1.1400 figure throughout Monday's Asian session. Positive sentiment on the euro was driven by the broad weakening of the US dollar (USD), dragged down by waning demand for safe-haven assets following a dramatic diplomatic breakthrough to defuse the five-month-long US-Iran war. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ✅ Geopolitics: US Halts 13th Night of Attacks & Gulf De-escalation A drastic shift in the Middle East geopolitical risk landscape was the primary trigger for the US Dollar Index (DXY)'s decline from its monthly peak: - US Bombardment Cease & Tehran Pause: After launching 13 consecutive nights of attacks, the US military officially halted its bombing campaign against Iranian targets at the end of Friday. This move was met with a positive response from Tehran, which immediately suspended retaliatory missile/drone attacks on Washington's allied facilities in the Gulf region. - Statement from UN Ambassador Mike Waltz: US Ambassador to the UN, Mike Waltz, confirmed that while the warships remain on high combat alert, President Donald Trump is allowing navigational space for the diplomatic process. The easing of hostilities immediately sent crude oil prices plummeting, easing concerns about an exogenous inflationary spiral (energy-driven inflation), and reducing speculation of aggressive Federal Reserve interest rate hikes. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ✅ Technical Analysis 4-Hour Chart (H4) Technically, on the 4-hour chart (H4), the opening with a bullish gap brought EUR/USD out of weekly selling pressure and it is attempting to retest the dynamic barrier area: - Testing Path: The Euro's recovery will face a major resistance test at 1.1480 - 1.1485. As long as EUR/USD is unable to break through and close consecutively above this level, the current uptrend is still categorized as a relief rally ahead of the FOMC decision. - Support Hold at 1.1370: The downside is supported by the gap closing floor at 1.1370. A break back below this level would close the morning gap and bring the price to retest the current year's base at 1.1325.