DAVID E. SANGER2026年7月27日特朗普总统在介入伊朗冲突时几乎没有制定任何致胜策略，如今正竭力寻找一种能保全颜面的退出方式。 Alex Kent/The New York TimesPresident Trump often celebrates his unpredictability, declaring that it keeps allies and adversaries alike off balance.特朗普总统经常以自己的不可预测性为荣，宣称这能让盟友和对手都措手不及。By his telling, his willingness to bomb Iranian nuclear sites 13 months ago, and send Delta Force commandos in to snatch President Nicolás Maduro of Venezuela from his bed in early January, reflected his determination to execute military operations that would have made his predecessors blanch. He told The New York Times he was limited only by “my own morality,” as he wielded the world’s biggest hammer.按照他的说法，他13个月前轰炸伊朗核设施的意愿，以及在1月初派遣三角洲特种部队突击队员将委内瑞拉总统马杜罗从床上抓走的举动，都体现了他执行军事行动的决心——这些行动足以让他的前任们胆寒。他告诉《纽约时报》，在挥舞着世界上最大的一把大锤时，唯一限制他的只有“我自己的道德准则”。But in recent weeks, he has seemed trapped, his presidency gradually consumed by a war he cannot find his way out of.但在最近几周，他似乎陷入了困境，他的总统任期正逐渐被一场他找不到出路的战争所吞噬。He has discovered limits on his power that he could have scarcely imagined as he began full combat operations on Feb. 28, when he set out goals for a swift end to Iran’s nuclear program and the overthrow of the country’s government.2月28日，当他启动全面作战行动时，曾设定了迅速终结伊朗核计划和推翻该国政府的目标，而现在，他发现了自己权力的局限性，这是他在当时几乎无法想象的。Five months later, those goals remain almost entirely unaccomplished. And Mr. Trump, once confident that overwhelming force would enable him to pursue in Iran what he proudly called the “Venezuela model” — a change of government to one amenable to U.S. control — is now hesitant to plunge back into major combat operations that his intelligence agencies assess are unlikely to work as well in Tehran.五个月后，这些目标几乎完全没有实现。特朗普曾经满怀信心地认为，凭借压倒性的武力，他能在伊朗推行他自豪地称之为“委内瑞拉模式”的计划——即实现政权更迭，建立一个服从美国控制的政府——但现在，他对于重新投入大规模作战行动感到犹豫不决，因为他的情报机构评估，这些行动在德黑兰不太可能取得同样的效果。He has been unable to control surging oil prices, or their effects on the stock market. The shipping that crawled to a stop in the Strait of Hormuz, then was opened for a few short weeks, is back to a trickle, with a second choke point, between the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, now threatened. And while the president has threatened to take Kharg Island, where Iran ships oil, or to seize its underground stores of enriched uranium, he has said publicly that he knows there is no appetite for sending in ground troops.他一直无法控制飙升的油价，也无法控制油价对股市的影响。霍尔木兹海峡的航运曾一度停滞，之后虽开放了短短几周，如今又恢复到通行寥寥无几的状态，而位于红海和亚丁湾之间的第二个咽喉要道如今也受到了威胁。尽管总统曾威胁要夺取伊朗用于运输石油的哈尔克岛，或者夺取伊朗的地下浓缩铀储存库，但他也公开表示，他知道民众并不支持派遣地面部队。去年，沙特阿拉伯王储穆罕默德·本·萨勒曼与特朗普在白宫会面。Not all of Mr. Trump’s frustrations, people close to the president say, are driven by the war, now so unpopular that only 29 percent of Americans polled by The Washington Post and Ipsos approved of his handling of the conflict. But much of it is. And the angst is clear as he promises to stop Iran’s nuclear program at any cost, while his allies at home want out.接近总统的人士表示，特朗普的挫败感并非全部源于这场战争——目前这场战争非常不受欢迎，在《华盛顿邮报》和益普索的民意调查中，只有29%的美国人赞同他对冲突的处理方式——但他的很大一部分挫败感确实来源于此。当他承诺不惜一切代价阻止伊朗的核计划，而他在国内的盟友却想要退出时，这种焦虑显而易见。“We got to wrap it up,” Speaker Mike Johnson said last week, voicing a sentiment heard increasingly from Mr. Trump’s most enthusiastic supporters.“我们必须结束这一切，”众议院议长迈克·约翰逊上周表示，这反映了特朗普最狂热的支持者中日益普遍的情绪。But the president does not have a clear way to accomplish that goal. Having entered the conflict with little strategy for victory, he now is struggling for a face-saving way to exit.但总统并没有实现该目标的明确方法。由于在介入这场冲突时几乎没有制胜战略，他现在正竭力寻找一种体面的退出方式。A month ago, he exuded confidence that he had found the way to declare victory. On June 17, Mr. Trump signed with a flourish — at the Palace of Versailles, where World War I officially ended in 1919 — a hastily written, 14-point cease-fire agreement.一个月前，他信心满满，认为自己找到了宣布胜利的方法。6月17日，在1919年宣告第一次世界大战正式结束的凡尔赛宫，特朗普大张旗鼓地签署了一份仓促起草的14点停火协议。It lasted only two weeks.这份协议仅仅维持了两周。The Iranians who negotiated the deal appeared to have been in conflict with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, whose forces opened fire on ships that refused to use the channel of the Strait of Hormuz that Iran controls. While Mr. Trump said in the recent interview with The Times that Iranian leaders wanted billions of dollars in Iranian overseas funds unfrozen and oil shipments flowing, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps seems more interested in demonstrating control.参与谈判该协议的伊朗人似乎与伊斯兰革命卫队存在分歧，后者的部队向拒绝使用伊朗控制的霍尔木兹海峡航道的船只开火。虽然特朗普在最近接受《纽约时报》采访时表示，伊朗领导人希望解冻数十亿美元的伊朗海外资金并保持石油运输畅通，但伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队似乎更关注展示其控制力。Now Mr. Trump has three main options: military escalation, economic crackdown or declaring victory and getting out. Each has been debated in recent weeks in meetings with Vice President JD Vance; Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth; the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Gen. Dan Caine; his son-in-law Jared Kushner; and his special envoy, Steve Witkoff.现在，特朗普有三个主要选项：军事升级、经济施压，或宣布胜利并撤出。最近几周，他与副总统万斯、国防部长海格塞斯、参谋长联席会议主席丹·凯恩将军、女婿贾里德·库什纳以及特别代表史蒂夫·威特科夫在会议上对每个选项都进行了讨论。Each option seems unpalatable, for different reasons.每种选择似乎都难以接受，原因各不相同。On Friday, after signaling all week that he was planning a return to major combat operations in Iran, he pulled back. In briefings, according to several officials, aides cast doubt on whether a massive bombardment, one that cut off electricity and went after Iran’s resilient missile capability, would result in Iran’s return to meaningful negotiations.上周五，在整整一周都释放出计划在伊朗恢复大规模作战行动的信号后，他却退缩了。据几位官员透露，在简报会上，助手们怀疑，一场切断电力供应并针对伊朗顽强导弹能力的大规模轰炸是否能促使伊朗重返有实质意义的谈判。本月早些时候，人们在伊朗马什哈德市中心行走。And the price would be high. Mr. Trump was told that attacks of that magnitude could lead to huge civilian casualties and mass starvation among the very Iranians he once promised to protect from their own government. When he was asked in the Oval Office on Friday whether he was hesitant to blow up power plants and bridges, because that could constitute war crimes, he said, “I won’t respond to that question.”而且代价将是高昂的。特朗普被告知，这种规模的袭击可能会导致大量平民伤亡和大规模饥荒，而受害者正是他曾经承诺要保护免受其本国政府侵害的伊朗人。周五，在椭圆形办公室，当被问及他是否因为炸毁发电厂和桥梁可能构成战争罪而对此感到犹豫时，他说：“我不会回答这个问题。”But his real hesitation may come from the fact that the war has depleted U.S. stockpiles of missile interceptors. In April, the Center for Strategic and International Studies estimated that half the U.S. inventories of some key interceptors might have already been used. After 13 consecutive nights of attacks and counterattacks this month, those numbers, some officials say, have reached critically low levels, and were a factor in Mr. Trump’s decision in recent days to hold off on a major escalation in the war.但他真正的犹豫可能源于这场战争已耗尽了美国的导弹拦截器储备。今年4月，战略与国际问题研究中心估计，美国一些关键拦截器的库存可能已经消耗了半数。一些官员表示，在本月连续13个夜晚的攻防战之后，这些库存已降至危急低位，这也是特朗普最近几天决定暂缓战争重大升级的一个因素。Mr. Trump’s second option is to let sanctions sink in, hoping that further crackdowns on oil exports, enforced by the renewed blockade of shipments into and out of the Strait of Hormuz, will have their intended effect.特朗普的第二个选项是让制裁逐步发挥作用，希望通过重新封锁进出霍尔木兹海峡的货物，进一步打击石油出口，从而达到预期效果。But those are slow, and Mr. Trump has been predicting economic collapse in Iran since he first pulled out of the Obama-era nuclear deal in 2018 and imposed what he called crushing controls on Iran. Eight years later, the regime lives, under a new leader who could be more dedicated to a covert nuclear program.但这些措施见效缓慢，而且自2018年特朗普首次退出奥巴马时代的核协议并对伊朗实施他所谓的毁灭性管控以来，他一直预测伊朗会发生经济崩溃。八年过去了，该政权依然存在，且由一位可能更致力于秘密核计划的新领导人掌权。That strategy may yet work. But it will require a costly, continuous U.S. military presence, and the possibility of on-again, off-again exchanges of fire that risk more American lives and more attacks on Gulf allies.这一战略或许仍然有效。但这将需要美国保持代价高昂且持续的军事存在，并且可能会引发断断续续的交火，从而危及更多美国人的生命，并可能导致海湾盟友面临更多袭击。The third option is to declare victory and go home. 第三个选项是宣布胜利并撤军。But exiting comes with costs. If Mr. Trump leaves Iran with its near-bomb grade nuclear fuel buried under rubble and with the Strait of Hormuz under de facto Iranian control, he will have failed to address the problem that triggered his attack and created a vast new one for energy markets.但退出也是有代价的。如果特朗普离开伊朗时其近核武器级核燃料仍埋在废墟下，且霍尔木兹海峡实质上仍处于伊朗的控制之下，那么他不仅未能解决令他发动袭击的问题，反而为能源市场制造了巨大的新问题。It would define his legacy. And it would make clear that there are more constraints on his power than he believed in January, when he declared that his reach was limitless.这将定义他的政治遗产，并且将清楚地表明，他的权力所受的制约比他今年1月所认为的要多——当时他曾宣称，自己的能力是无限的。Jonathan Swan和Eric Schmitt对本文有报道贡献。David E. Sanger报道特朗普政府和一系列国家安全问题。他在时报任职超过40年，著有四本关于美国国家安全挑战的书。翻译：晋其角点击查看本文英文版。获取更多RSS：https://feedx.net https://feedx.site