SOX Time@Mode #2: 14,247 invalidates, 9,755 belowPHLX SemiconductorNASDAQ_DLY:SOXIvanLabrieThe semiconductor index put in a blow-off top and the monthly structure is what carries it. The daily has now confirmed it. Friday's bar closed solidly under the speed lines and today accelerated through, closing at 11,394.40, down 3.59%, with the daily turning bearish on the close. The catalyst was China starting mass production of its own DUV lithography tools. Chips were bid premarket, then the equipment names turned and ASML fell 4.6%. The market repriced the toolmakers and not the chipmakers, which tells you where it thinks the moat actually was. Invalidation is clean and single: a monthly reclaim of 14,246.96 and the call is dead. Below, the projected downside stacks to 9,839.79 and 9,755, then 7,095 into year-end. Overhead now sits 13,291.75, where the downtrend 25% line collides with the uptrend 50% line, with the Warsh-era FOMC key at 13,876.77 above that. All of this into a meeting with a live hike tail and no dot plot, with MSFT and META reporting after the close on 7/29 and AMZN on 7/30. The AI-capex question this week is who is funding the build. Intel's Q2 answered it in one name: operating cash flow positive, adjusted free cash flow negative $8.4B, $14.2B spent buying out its Ireland fab partner on 40-year paper at over 6%. While the capex was self-funded it ignored the rate path. Financed, it does not. That makes the semis correction a dispersion story rather than a demand story, and the monthly is where dispersion shows up first.