EUR/USD Weekly Outlook: Failed Bullish Confirmation Exposes 1.13Euro / U.S. DollarFOREXCOM:EURUSDMaxAOEUR/USD has failed to produce the confirmation required to change the daily delivery. During the previous week, price traded into the 1.1460–1.1480 resistance array, where I wanted to see the highs removed before adopting a stronger bullish bias. Instead, price failed to sustain acceptance above the area and has now rotated back towards the lower boundary of the range. This does not mean price is falling because it is mechanically “hunting stops”. It means the market has not found sufficient execution capacity above the range to continue facilitating higher prices. From an EXODUS perspective, the failed expansion is information. Fundamental and institutional context The macroeconomic environment is currently creating two-way pressure in EUR/USD. The European Central Bank kept its three key interest rates unchanged at its 23 July meeting. The ECB acknowledged that the full inflationary consequences of the recent energy shock have not yet materialised and that uncertainty remains elevated. Higher energy prices therefore restrict the ECB’s ability to become materially more accommodative, but they also create a potential drag on euro-area growth. The Federal Reserve enters its 28–29 July meeting with inflation still above its 2% objective. Minutes from the June meeting showed that officials viewed inflation risks as skewed to the upside, partly because of energy prices, geopolitical uncertainty and emerging price pressures beyond tariffs. Recent dealer and strategist commentary has consequently shifted back towards the dollar. Escalating Middle East tensions, oil trading above $100 and firmer expectations for restrictive Federal Reserve policy have supported demand for the US dollar, while EUR/USD weakened after the ECB maintained rates. The broader institutional picture remains less decisive. A Reuters survey still showed median forecasts for EUR/USD around 1.16 by the end of September and 1.17 by year-end, meaning the medium-term consensus remains constructive on the euro even as short-term dollar bulls regain ground. This divergence between the immediate macro environment and the longer-term consensus is important. It suggests that EUR/USD can remain volatile and corrective without necessarily invalidating the broader euro recovery. The liquidity condition Liquidity should not be understood as a line that price is predetermined to reach. It is a condition. Price can only continue through an area when enough opposing interest is available to facilitate execution. When price enters an array, fails to consume the offers inside it and then returns beneath the origin of the move, the attempted expansion has not been accepted. That is what the daily chart is currently communicating. There were several bullish injection wicks between approximately 1.1330 and 1.1380. These showed that buyers were willing to absorb pressure at lower prices. However, the presence of buying does not automatically establish bullish control. For control to change, the buying must produce a consequence. The required consequence was a sustained break through 1.1475–1.1480. That did not occur. Price entered the resistance array, failed to remove the relevant high and has since delivered back towards the lower portion of the range. The bullish injections are therefore losing significance unless buyers can defend the range immediately. Weekly bias My weekly bias is now bearish towards sell-side liquidity at 1.13246, while price remains below the failed confirmation area. The market is trading in the lower half of the current range, beneath its equilibrium and beneath the daily bearish array. This places the lower boundary in a vulnerable position. The primary draw is: Sell-side liquidity: 1.13246 This is the lowest visible daily reference beneath the consolidation and the area where the remaining sell orders from previous lows are likely to become active market orders once triggered. The level should not automatically be treated as a reversal point. It is first an execution event. What happens after the liquidity is accessed will determine whether price is being accepted lower or whether the selling is absorbed. Bearish scenario The bearish scenario remains active while EUR/USD stays beneath approximately 1.1450–1.1480. I would expect continued bearish delivery if: Intraday retracements fail beneath the daily resistance array. Price cannot reclaim the midpoint of the current range near 1.1400–1.1410. Lower-timeframe bullish expansions fail to maintain acceptance. Price displaces through the recent lows towards 1.13246. For day trading, the preferred opportunity would be a retracement into a bearish intraday array rather than selling directly into the daily lows. I would look for London or New York to retrace higher, introduce buying into resistance and then fail to maintain that delivery. A lower-timeframe bearish sequence could then provide continuation towards the daily sell-side objective. The logic is: Retracement into available liquidity → failure to accept higher → bearish displacement → continuation towards 1.13246. Reaction at 1.13246 The reaction around 1.13246 will be more important than the initial move towards it. If price trades through the level with strong displacement and remains accepted beneath it, the liquidity event could support further bearish continuation. If price accesses the liquidity but cannot maintain lower prices, I will look for signs of absorption: Repeated lower rejection wicks Failure to continue after the sell-side is triggered Bullish displacement away from the low Reclamation of the origin of the breakdown A lower-timeframe shift from bearish to bullish delivery A sweep without displacement is not sufficient confirmation by itself. The market must demonstrate that the orders introduced beneath the low were absorbed and that buyers can now facilitate a move in the opposite direction. Bullish invalidation The immediate bearish thesis begins to weaken if EUR/USD reclaims 1.1410 and establishes acceptance above the equilibrium of the range. A stronger bullish change would still require price to remove the failed confirmation high near 1.1480. Only then would I reconsider the higher daily pocket between approximately: 1.1528 and 1.1575 Until this occurs, bullish moves should be treated as potential retracements inside a bearish daily condition rather than evidence of a completed reversal. EXODUS framework The objective is not to predict every candle. The objective is to determine: Observation: Price failed to remove the high required for bullish confirmation. Structure: EUR/USD remains beneath the daily resistance array and in the lower half of the range. Delivery: Price is rotating lower after failing to gain acceptance at higher prices. Objective: Sell-side liquidity at 1.13246. Execution: Wait for intraday retracements and evidence that bearish delivery is resuming. My current framework is therefore: Below 1.1480, the bullish transition remains unconfirmed. Below 1.1410, short-term delivery remains bearish. At 1.13246, observe the reaction rather than assuming the outcome. Liquidity creates the condition. Delivery reveals control. Execution comes last. This publication is for educational purposes and does not constitute financial advice.