Interest RatesOct 26, 2026, 2:18 PM ETS&P 500 Index (SP500), SPX, DJI, NDX, SPY, DIA, QQQ, IVV, VOO, IWMIVW, CL1:COM, DXY, AFMC, AFSM, ARKK, AVUV, BAPR, IVOO, IVOV, IWC, IWN, IWO, IWP, IWR, IWS, IYY, SPLV, SPMD, SPMO, SPSM, SPUS, SPUU, SPXE, SPXL, SPXN, SPXS, SPXT, SPXU, SPXV, SPYD, SPYG, SPYV, SPYX, SQLV, SSO, SSPY, SVAL, SYLD, TMDV, TPHD, TPLC, TPSC, UAUG, UJAN, UMAR, UMAY, UOCT, UPRO, USMC, USMF, USVM, MAGS, US10YAgar Capital5.92K FollowersSummaryThe Federal Reserve is expected to hold rates at 3.75–4.00% on October 28, but markets still price a nearly 78% probability of another hike in December.Inflation remains stubbornly high, while weaker job growth and rising financial pressures complicate the Fed's next move.The AI investment boom is creating a monetary policy dilemma: massive infrastructure spending supports economic growth but also increases capital demand and inflationary pressures.Semiconductor stocks have sold off sharply while Treasury yields have declined, suggesting investors are becoming increasingly concerned about growth risks.A Fed pause may offer temporary relief to Wall Street, but it won't resolve AI funding risks. I remain cautious on semiconductors, favor cash-rich hyperscalers, and maintain roughly 15% cash.photovs/iStock via Getty ImagesThesisTo hike or not to hike? That is the question. Shakespeare, forgive me.Surely the great poet will forgive me, but I believe that on Wednesday, October 28th, when the Fed meets, won’t be anything like their usualThis article was written byAgar Capital5.92K FollowersAgar Capital is a portfolio manager with experience across asset allocation, portfolio construction, macroeconomic research and fundamental equity analysis. Agar Capital currently works in European asset management, with a focus on multi-asset strategies, dynamic asset allocation, macro-driven positioning and equity selection.The investment approach combines bottom-up fundamental analysis, valuation and macroeconomic research, with a particular focus on growth, momentum and long-only strategies. Areas of research include technology, macroeconomics, portfolio strategy and selected commodity themes.Professional training includes Bloomberg Market Concepts, Bloomberg ESG certification and ESG-related corporate finance studies.Associated with Trade The NarrativeAnalyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of SPX, NDX either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.Comments