USDJPY: Buyers Target a Return to 159USD/JPYOANDA:USDJPYMihai_IacobFrom intervention to consolidation In mid-summer, USDJPY reached 163—a level not seen in decades and, considering the pair’s modern history, effectively an all-time high. BoJ intervened forcefully, and the pair fell roughly 1,000 pips in just a few days. Price then recovered. When it returned to the 160 area, BoJ again, reminding the market that they were watching closely. But interventions have rarely changed USDJPY’s long-term direction on their own. Those of us who were trading in the early 2000s and again in 2008 saw interventions aimed at stopping the yen from strengthening. They could slow or temporarily interrupt the move, but the trend continued until the underlying fundamentals changed. Intervention can create a temporary floor or ceiling; it does not necessarily reverse the larger trend. A range with 159 as resistance After the second intervention, USDJPY rose again but formed a ceiling near 159 in late September. Since then, the pair has been trading in a range. That consolidation may be exactly what Japanese authorities want: a market that is contained without another sharp move in either direction. More recently, price reversed from newly established support around 156.50, recovered above the midpoint of the range, and is now trading near 157.80. That recovery gives buyers a short-term advantage and, in my view, makes a retest of the 159 area the more likely next move. My plan I’m bullish on USDJPY and will look to buy dips, targeting the 159 resistance zone. I would place the invalidation below 156.50; a decisive move beneath that support would weaken the bullish setup. For now, the pair remains within a range. My view is that buyers have the better opportunity to push price back toward its upper boundary.