Prediction Markets’ Credibility ‘On the Line’ in Midterms

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“America’s political class is hurtling toward an election that some fear could turn into yet another public opinion polling flop,” Politico reports.“Enter the prediction markets.”“Wall Street’s buzziest startups — Kalshi and Polymarket chiefly among them — have long held themselves up as paragons of the forecasting business, arguing that voters will be more truthful with money on the line. Now, the midterm elections are about to test whether their predictive chops hold up when on display.”