Bond market tensions ease but Treasury yields near 5% and France's debt risks keep investors on edge

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There is a bit of a welcome relief in global bonds to start the new week, particularly in Europe after Moody's affirmed France's Aa3 credit rating. Meanwhile, Treasury yields have also settled down a fair bit after an extremely volatile period earlier this month. But in looking at where things are right now, there is still plenty of tension lurking beneath the surface.For one, 10-year Treasury yields are still sitting just below the 5% mark for the time being. And over in Europe, the France-Germany 10-year yield spread remains at levels that would have surely been alarming just a few months ago.So while the selling pressure in the bond market has eased for now, the underlying concerns haven't really changed all that much. And as much as that offers some breathing room for broader markets, there are still plenty of reasons to be cautious.The Fed decision tomorrow is one obvious catalyst, even if policymakers are widely expected to leave interst rates unchanged. And beyond that, I'm also keeping a close watch on big tech earnings this week.On the latter, there's a growing concern over whether the enormous spending behind the AI boom can actually justify the returns. And if earnings from the likes of Microsoft, Alphabet, and Amazon all back that sentiment, we could see a rather nasty bout of volatility kick in again. That will especially be the case if investors start seeking safety in government bonds again while becoming more wary of riskier corporate debt. If so, falling Treasury yields might not necessarily be the good news that stock markets are hoping for.Looking to 10-year Treasury yields, the 5% mark remains the key level to watch. A firmer break below the 4.92% region could open up a further retracement towards the 100-day moving average (red line) around 4.77% next. Otherwise, a move back above 5% would keep the recent consolidation in focus with the October highs around 5.30% still in the picture.Over in Europe, Moody's decision to reaffirm France's Aa3 credit rating at the end of last week has certainly helped to ease some nerves.French bond yields have come off the boil, with the France-Germany 10-year yield spread now retreating towards 153 bps after racing to its highest levels since 2011 last week.However, let's not forget that Moody's also retained a negative outlook on France. The country's fiscal problems haven't suddenly disappeared overnight, nor has the political uncertainty surrounding efforts to bring its budget deficit under control. Those issues are still very much in the picture as we get into the new week.In any case, the chart above says plenty about how fragile the situation remains. The spread is still holding above the key 150 bps threshold, leaving the door open for another push higher if fiscal concerns return to the spotlight.For now, markets may be enjoying a bit of calm. But with major central bank decisions, big tech earnings and France's fiscal troubles all still in play, I wouldn't mistake that for a clean bill of health. No pun intended. ;) This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.