Skip to contentHome page Seeking Alpha - Power to InvestorsOct 30, 2026, 7:46 AM ETState Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY), SP500, SPX, VOO, IVV, NDX, QQQ, DIA, DJI, IWMRational Techne1.82K Followers"But Jevons Paradox!" is a common retort by many of the bulls on the AI trade.However, while it might feel intuitively correct, when you dive into the math of what Jevons Paradox requires in this context, things begin to look a lot more shaky.What’s more, recent data quite convincingly show that the math simply doesn’t math for the AI bulls who want to apply Jevons Paradox to the AI trade.As such, the bears’ concerns, which the bulls are trying to ward off by appealing to Jevons Paradox, actually have a lot more cogency than the bulls might think.Mohamad Faizal Bin Ramli/iStock via Getty ImagesIn the dialogue between the bulls and the bears on the AI trade, as a bear myself in this debate, there are several themes that oftentimes leave me with the impression that the bullsThis article was written byRational Techne1.82K FollowersFollowing Charlie Munger’s injunction to “Invert! Always Invert!” I think one of the best mental models long-term investors can use is, not “how can I make money?”, but “how can I avoid losing money?” The idea is that the upside will take care of itself if you can avoid the big draw-downs that are oftentimes the major impediment to the long-term success of retail investors.Dove-tailing with this, my experience has shown that most investment ideas actually do not offer investors good opportunities, especially from a risk/reward perspective, most of the time. And why should we expect anything else? Why should it be easy to make money in a place as competitive as public markets?As a result, my writing will oftentimes come across as highly critical, as it seeks to show how, oftentimes in my view, what might seem like a good idea on a first pass, should actually be expected to turn out badly (or at least sub-optimally) when looked at through a somewhat more critical lens. Through this sort of process of subjecting investment ideas to this kind of critical assessment, the idea is to hopefully help in the process of avoiding losing money, all the while letting the winners take care of themselves. Happy Investing!Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial short position in the shares of QQQ either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.In addition to being short QQQ through put options, I also have a short position through PSQ.Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.CommentsTo ensure this doesn’t happen in the future, please enable Javascript and cookies in your browser.Is this happening to you frequently? Please report it on our feedback forum.If you have an ad-blocker enabled you may be blocked from proceeding. Please disable your ad-blocker and refresh.