Trading Plan and Analysis - #XAUUSD 30/10/2026GoldOANDA:XAUUSDfntradinglabH1 Timeframe Yesterday’s data double-header delivered a mixed picture for gold. Q3 GDP came in at 3.4%, beating expectations significantly and handing Fed hawks fresh ammunition, while PCE broadly matched forecasts – headline PCE rose 0.5% month-on-month and 3.6% year-on-year, while core PCE held at 0.3% MoM and 3.1% YoY, all in line with consensus. The GDP beat was the real market mover. A 3.4% growth print showing the economy is still running hot makes it harder for gold bulls to argue the Fed needs to stand down – strong growth plus sticky inflation is precisely the environment that keeps December hike odds elevated. Gold dropped around 1% on the data to the 4,020 - 4,025 area, briefly touching the 4,025 - 4,040 zone flagged as the key floor in yesterday’s plan, before pulling back even further. Looking at the H1 chart now, the OB H1 at 3,990 - 4,000 is being tested again – price is sitting right on the zone at $3,997. The bounce structure built up after the Fed decision (the CHOCH H1 and BOS H1 sequence visible on the chart) has now been fully given back in a matter of hours. The 4,025 - 4,040 consolidation base did not hold as support, which shifts the picture back to the bearish case. The good news, if any, is that core PCE matched rather than beat expectations, so the December 9 hike path isn’t materially more certain than it was before the data. The 10-year yield is at 5.042%, which has edged higher but not spiked. This is a market still caught between two forces: growth and inflation keeping hike bets alive on one side, and an already heavily-sold gold seeking technical support on the other. Today is Friday – the last trading day of October. Monthly close positioning could add liquidity and volatility to today’s session. The 3,990 - 4,000 OB H1 is the most important level to watch: if it holds and produces a confirmed reversal, gold ends October above $4,000. If it breaks with a clean H1 close below, the monthly close would print below $4,000 for the first time since July, a technically significant development. 🟢 BUY SCENARIO (counter-trend, OB H1 retest) Zone to watch: 3,990 – 4,000 (OB H1 currently being tested) Confirms if: sharp displacement back above 4,010 with a bullish M15 CHOCH Invalidates if: H1 close below 3,985 🔴 SELL SCENARIO (primary, monthly close below $4,000) Trigger: H1 close below 3,985 with follow-through Target: 3,960 – 3,975 July cycle lows, then 3,940 area Invalidates if: price reclaims 4,010 on H1 close On key levels, near support is the OB H1 at 3,990 – 4,000 being tested right now, then 3,975 – 3,985 (last week’s intraday lows), then 3,940 – 3,960 (July cycle lows). Near resistance is 4,025 – 4,040 (broke as support yesterday), then 4,065 – 4,075. A monthly close above $4,000 today would be a minor technical positive, but the bearish macro thesis – strong growth + sticky inflation + December hike near 90% priced – hasn’t changed. This reflects a personal view and technical read from FN Trading Lab based on current market structure, not financial advice or a specific buy/sell recommendation. Please watch price reaction at the levels mentioned and make your own decisions in line with your own strategy.