Can crude oil (USOIL) extend its uptrend amid supply risks?Crude Oil SpotCAPITALCOM:USOILKrisadaYoonaisilCan crude oil (USOIL) extend its uptrend amid supply risks? Fundamental Analysis 1.Geopolitical risk remains the main driver and the strongest source of support for prices. However, the key thing to watch is the number of vessels and the volume of oil actually getting through. 2.Stocks at Cushing, the delivery hub for WTI, fell by about 624,000 barrels, while OPEC+ is likely to keep its output targets unchanged, but the actual low export volumes matter more than targets on paper. 3.That said, several factors are weighing on oil prices, including reports of coordination through intermediary countries and efforts to revive negotiations, Russian refineries ramping output back up, and rising exports of refined products from Northeast Asia. Technical Analysis 4.USOIL surged above the last swing high and the sideways range, forming a higher high above 104.00 before easing slightly to retest the breakout zone. The price holds above diverging bullish EMAs and continues to form higher swings, indicating strengthening bullish momentum. 5.If USOIL breaks above the latest peak at 104.18, the next upside target lies at 107.16, based on the 100% Fibonacci extension. 6.However, if the price pull back below the upper boundary of the range, it could retest EMA200 near 100.00. Analysis by: Krisada Yoonaisil, Financial Markets Strategist at Exness