SOXX: First Test of the 200 EMA Since Last MayiShares Semiconductor ETFBATS:SOXXotmoszizSOXX has been showing a clear upward trend while holding above the 20 EMA. However, once price broke below the 20 EMA, the character of the trend changed noticeably, and we are now seeing a clear shift toward a downtrend. For the first time since last May, SOXX has come back to test the 200 EMA. The last time SOXX traded below the 200 EMA, it took roughly three months to reclaim it. That period was certainly weak, but the structure was nowhere near as aggressive as what we have seen over the past several months. Now the key question is whether the 200 EMA can hold. If it fails to hold, I think the next important test will be the $464–$460 area, which is close to the previous low. A clean break below that zone could open the door toward the $435–$425 area. Below that, I would start looking at deeper historical levels, including $400 and $368. I hate the Hyman Minsky model, but I have to admit that it paints a surprisingly good picture of what we are seeing. If the recent AI/semiconductor boom was the "euphoria" phase, I would say we are now moving through the fear phase. The important question is whether this is simply a correction within the larger trend, or the beginning of a much deeper reset. For now, the 200 EMA and the $464–$460 zone are the levels I am watching most closely.