Notable November: Election Rebound or the Bears Take Control?State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETFBATS:SPYheavydiligenceOctober ended with sellers in control, leaving SPY near the bottom of the broader range we’ve been watching since August. November now presents an important test: can buyers defend that range and build a recovery, or will the late-October selling develop into a more meaningful breakdown? SPY closed the regular session at $755.72 and continued trading around $757 after hours, which is reflected on my 4 hour chart. The broader boundaries remain approximately $750–$752 below and $783–$784 above. Despite the dramatic moves between them, that range has largely remained intact. The bulls still have an opportunity to defend support. The bears have an opportunity to turn an established floor into resistance. The opening sessions should help us assess which side is gaining traction, but neither outcome is confirmed simply because October finished poorly. I remain interested in a post election recovery. However, that recovery needs evidence, and a seasonal tendency cannot substitute for buyers showing up. What October leaves behind The economic backdrop is more complicated than a simple recession scare. Third quarter real GDP grew at a 3.4% annualized rate, while private domestic final sales rose 4.9%. Those figures suggest underlying demand remains resilient, even as investors question how much future growth is already reflected in stock prices. Inflation remains a problem. September headline CPI rose 3.7% year over year, producer prices increased 6.3%, and PCE inflation came in at 3.6%, with core PCE at 3.1%. These measures cover different baskets, but collectively they leave the Federal Reserve with unfinished work. The October 28 Fed decision held rates at 3.75%–4.00%, with two members preferring another quarter-point increase. Chair Kevin Warsh argued that strong growth itself was not necessarily the source of inflation. Even so, a pause should not be mistaken for a promise of imminent cuts. November’s data will help shape expectations heading toward December. Corporate earnings offer reasons for both confidence and caution. FactSet’s October 30 update showed 82% of reporting companies beating earnings estimates, with blended earnings growth of 30.2% and growth across all eleven sectors. However, the aggregate earnings beat was only 1.9%, below recent historical averages. Companies can continue growing while investors become less willing to reward results that only narrowly exceed expectations. Valuation provides another reason to keep the bullish case open. According to FactSet, the S&P 500 is trading at approximately 18.7 times expected earnings over the next twelve months, below its 5 year average of 19.8 and 10 year average of 19.1. That could make stocks more attractive if earnings expectations hold up. The qualification matters. If analysts cut those forecasts, some of that apparent value can disappear without prices recovering. It strengthens the case for watching for a recovery, while leaving price confirmation essential. Amazon illustrates the tension surrounding AI investment. AWS revenue grew approximately 39%, yet trailing twelve-month free cash flow was negative $42.4 billion as spending increased. Strong demand and heavy cash consumption can exist at the same time. Investors are increasingly focused on how, and when that investment translates into sustainable returns. The bond market adds another layer. Friday’s selling in stocks coincided with falling Treasury yields, with the 2 year near 4.59% and the 10 year near 4.93%. Lower yields did not restore confidence in technology, while energy and defensive sectors provided pockets of strength. That suggests the pressure extends beyond interest rates alone. Longer term inflation pricing also eased late in the week. The 10 year breakeven inflation rate finished October at 2.34%, down from 2.38% on October 28. It is an imperfect measure of expectations, but it helps distinguish persistent current inflation from a sudden deterioration in the longer term outlook. Fund flows showed caution rather than a clear turning point. LSEG Lipper reported $6.65 billion leaving U.S. equity funds during the week through October 28. That data predates the final two sessions, so it cannot establish whether the subsequent selling represented capitulation or whether institutions were preparing to buy. Taken together, the evidence leaves room for a recovery without confirming that the selling is finished. How much weight should the election carry? The possibility of election uncertainty fading is the main reason I remain interested in Green. Greater clarity about congressional control and potential policy changes could encourage investors to commit capital. But results can take time to resolve, and clarity does not guarantee that investors will welcome the implications. Historical post-midterm performance is encouraging over longer horizons. BlackRock’s research found an average S&P 500 total return of 14.1% during the six months following midterm elections since 1970, compared with 5.7% in non-midterm years. Its research also found that the average rally began before Election Day. That distinction matters. A six-month historical tendency does not tell us what happens on November 4, or even where November itself will finish. The shorter November sample is less decisive. Across the eight midterm years since SPY’s inception, November price returns averaged roughly 2.5%, very close to ordinary November performance over the same broader period. That supports keeping a recovery scenario open, but it does not establish a special election advantage strong enough to ignore inflation, earnings concerns, or broken support. The options reference and technical map The November 30 options premiums I reviewed give an approximate ATM straddle reference of $26.80, or 3.54%, around the $757.12 underlying price. That places the corresponding markers near $784 and $730–$731. These are references for potential movement derived from observed premiums. They are not guaranteed boundaries, automatic support and resistance, or a directional forecast. Their implications for the chart are different. A recovery toward $784 would return SPY to the upper end of the established range. A decline toward $730 would carry it substantially below the lower boundary. The bears do not need $730 to establish control. Sustained trading below $750–$752, followed by failed attempts to recover it, would already represent meaningful deterioration. Above the market, I’m watching $760–$761 first, followed by $765–$766. A sustained recovery through $772–$775 would provide stronger evidence that the late October damage is being repaired. Beyond that sits the broader $782–$785 resistance area. These are decision areas. What matters is whether buyers and sellers can hold them through subsequent tests. Green: election rebound and technical repair Green begins with buyers defending $750–$752, or recovering that area promptly after an undercut. Reclaiming $760–$761 would be an initial improvement. Holding above $765–$766 would make the recovery more convincing. The next important test is $772–$775. I want to see buyers maintain reclaimed levels through pullbacks, supported by improving participation and stronger semiconductor behavior. That would give a move toward $780–$784 more substance. The illustrated extension toward $790 is a possible overshoot, not a required target. Green also allows for setbacks around economic releases. A constructive month does not have to be a straight line higher. Repeated failures beneath resistance would weaken this scenario. Sustained acceptance below the lower range would undermine its foundation. This remains the recovery I’m watching for, but it has to earn confidence through price action. Yellow: a volatile month without a durable resolution Yellow remains highly credible because election uncertainty could ease while inflation and AI spending concerns remain unresolved. SPY could produce strong rallies and sharp declines without sustaining either direction. Much of that negotiation could occur between approximately $750 and $775. The Yellow illustration also includes deeper excursions beneath support. Those would need to become failed breakdowns, with buyers recovering the range. Prolonged trading below it, accompanied by failed recovery attempts, would shift the evidence toward Red. Consolidation does not mean quiet trading. A market can travel a considerable distance and still finish without resolving its larger structure. This kind of environment can punish traders who interpret every strong candle as the beginning of a lasting trend. Until price establishes a more durable recovery, Yellow deserves at least as much attention as the election rebound. Red: the range gives way Red gains credibility if $750–$752 breaks and subsequent recovery attempts fail. 4 hour and daily closes below that area, followed by rejection when price retests it, would carry more weight than a brief intraday breach. Continued semiconductor weakness, deteriorating guidance, and selling spreading into additional sectors would strengthen that interpretation. In that environment, $730–$731 becomes relevant as a broader downside marker. The chart’s extension toward approximately $723 represents a more severe outcome. Neither level is a guaranteed destination. We would continue evaluating the structure as it develops rather than assuming every support failure must lead to the lowest point on the chart. If buyers recover the broken range and begin holding higher levels, the bearish thesis must be reassessed. A breakdown can fail just as a breakout can. The dates that could change the picture All times below are Eastern. November 3 - U.S. midterm elections; September JOLTS at 10:00 a.m. November 5 - Third-quarter productivity and costs, 8:30 a.m. November 6 - October employment report, 8:30 a.m. November 10 - October CPI, 8:30 a.m. November 13 - October PPI, 8:30 a.m. November 18 - October FOMC minutes, 2:00 p.m. November 25 - October PCE and second-estimate Q3 GDP, 8:30 a.m. November 26 - Thanksgiving; U.S. stock markets closed November 27 - U.S. stock markets close early at 1:00 p.m. November 30 - Final trading session of the month The reports matter, but so do expectations and the market’s position when they arrive. Cooler inflation would be constructive, yet a rally that cannot hold reclaimed resistance would still deserve scrutiny. Strong employment could support the earnings outlook while complicating the interest rate outlook. I will be watching the initial reaction, then whether that reaction survives the following sessions. With GDP and PCE arriving immediately before Thanksgiving, the holiday schedule also deserves attention when evaluating late-month moves. The three paths on this chart illustrate how conditions could develop. Their individual turns are not forecasts of what each report will do. The purpose is to recognize when evidence strengthens one scenario and weakens another. October reinforced a lesson worth carrying forward: a profitable outcome does not automatically validate the decisions that produced it. A reasonable monthly thesis can still produce a poor trade if the entry, confirmation, or risk is wrong. We do not need to trade every move, and we do not need to defend a scenario after the market stops supporting it. Let the levels guide the reassessment, document the decisions, and make each setup earn the risk. Preparation > Prediction.