Crude oil remains under pressure amid US-Iran deal hopes; setbacks could push prices to new highs

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Crude oil came under some pressure yesterday after Iran's state media reported that Iran's security chief met with the Supreme Leader Khamenei. Sources said that Khamenei stressed in the meeting the importance of pursuing Iran's interests and implementing its conditions with the aim of ending the war and the stalemate situation.It was just a quick headline with little substance, but market’s expectations for a potential US-Iran deal strengthened, nonetheless. This morning, Reuters reported that Qatari mediators presented Iran with new draft deal in Tehran on Sunday and that Iran is considering the proposal, with response expected by the end of the week. The report added that the draft sets a seven-day timeline addressing both sides' concerns, each side must make daily confidence-building steps.The news weighed on oil prices for a little bit until we got a senior Iranian official saying that Qatar has not offered a fresh plan to stop hostilities with the US and Qatar’s ideas are unacceptable to Tehran. He added that Iran’s firm stance on nuclear issues remains unchanged. All in all, crude oil remains supported amid the Middle East tensions and the possibility of another US attack after the US midterm elections. We would need a de-escalation in the Saudi-Houthi conflict or a surprising breakthrough in US-Iran negotiations to get a significant correction in oil prices. CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAMEOn the daily chart, we can see that crude oil(CFD contract) is still consolidating around recent highs as US-Iran deal optimism strengthened. There’s not much we can glean from this timeframe as the most important levels remain the lower bound of the channel and the resistance around the 110.00 level, so we need to zoom in to see some more details.CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 4 hour chart, we have a minor upward trendline defining the bullish momentum. The buyers will likely continue to lean on the trendline, with a defined risk below it, to keep pushing into new highs. The sellers, on the other hand, will look for a break lower to extend the drop into the lower bound of the channel.CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 1 hour chart, we have a minor downward trendline defining the current pullback. The sellers will likely continue to lean on the trendline, with a defined risk above it, to keep targeting a break below the upward trendline. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to increase the bullish bets into the 110.00 resistance. The red lines define the average daily range for today. UPCOMING CATALYSTSTodaywe have the FOMC rate decision. Tomorrow, we get the US GDP report, the US PCE and the latest US Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, we conclude the week with the US Employment Cost Index. The focus will remain on the Middle East developments. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.