BTC: Midterm Weakness Returns. Is One Final Low Coming?Bitcoin / TetherUSBINANCE:BTCUSDTMBM_CryptoBTC: Midterm Weakness Returns. Is One Final Low Coming? BTC rallied from around $63k toward $88k, and for a while it looked like the June bottom was confirmed. But the recovery has now lost an important level. BTC failed to hold above the May high, rejected the upper boundary of its current formation, and is showing weakness as we enter the historical midterm bottoming window. For me, this brings the possibility of one final low back into focus. 1. Weekly Closes: Bears Are Back in Control The most important signal right now is the failure to hold above the May high around $83k. BTC broke above this level, but the breakout failed. We have now had two completed weekly closes below it. This tells me that buyers were unable to turn the May high into support. The next weekly close comes tomorrow. If BTC closes below the May high again, that would make three consecutive weekly closes beneath it. For me, that would add even more pressure on the bulls and confirm that the bears remain in control of the current structure. The first sign of improvement would be a weekly reclaim of $83k followed by price holding above it. Until then, the breakout looks weak. 2. Broadening Formation: Rejected at the Upper Boundary The daily chart shows where the recovery ran into trouble. BTC approached the upper boundary of this broadening formation around $87k to $88k and was rejected. When this is combined with the failed breakout above the May high, the recovery starts to look much less convincing. The lower boundary of the formation continues to move lower over time. This means BTC could make a new low below $57k while still remaining inside the broader structure. There is no confirmed breakdown yet. But if BTC continues to lose support, a move toward the lower side of the formation becomes more realistic. 3. Midterm Elections: Why This Period Matters For anyone unfamiliar with the term, the midterms are U.S. elections held halfway through a president’s four year term. All seats in the House of Representatives and around one third of the Senate are contested. The result can change which party controls Congress and influence future decisions around government spending, taxes, regulation, and crypto legislation. This makes the midterms important for financial markets because they can create uncertainty around future policy and investor confidence. In the chart, I have marked the periods around the previous midterm elections. In 2014, 2018, and 2022, BTC showed major weakness during these periods, with the final bear market low forming around or shortly after the elections. Now BTC is once again showing weakness as the next midterms approach. This does not mean the elections themselves cause the bottom. But the pattern is difficult to ignore. BTC is also around 56 weeks from the cycle peak. Previous major bear markets needed roughly 52 to 59 weeks to reach their final lows. Earlier in the year, the June low looked early compared with previous cycles. We have now entered the period where those cycles typically finished bottoming. That is why the next few weeks are so important. 4. Realized Price: The $54k Area Remains Relevant Realized price is currently around $54k. This estimates the market’s cost basis using the prices at which coins last moved on the blockchain. Previous major bear markets traded below realized price before the final low was confirmed. This cycle has not done that yet. If BTC loses the June low around $57k to $58k, realized price becomes a much more relevant downside area. A move toward $54k would create a new cycle low and bring this market closer to the deeper valuation reset seen in previous cycles. However, realized price moves over time. I do not see $54k as a guaranteed target. I see it as an important reference if the current support structure continues to fail. 5. What Happens Next? Below the May high, my bias remains cautious. The first area I am watching is around $73k to $75k. If that area fails, the next major zone is around $63k to $64k. If buyers also fail to defend that area, the June low around $57k to $58k becomes vulnerable. A break below the June low would strengthen the case for a move toward realized price and the lower boundary of the broadening formation. On the upside, BTC needs to reclaim the May high and hold above it. A sustained recovery above $88k followed by a successful retest would materially weaken the bearish scenario and give me much more confidence that June was the final bottom. My Personal View The rally toward $88k was strong, but strength is not only about how far price moves. It is also about whether important levels can be reclaimed and held. BTC failed to hold the May high, printed two weekly closes below it, and was rejected from the upper boundary of the current formation. At the same time, we are entering the same midterm period where previous bear markets formed their final lows. For me, this is strong enough to remain cautious. I am not saying that a new low is guaranteed. BTC could still form a higher low and recover. But until the May high is reclaimed, the bears remain in control and one final move below the June low remains a serious possibility. The next weekly close could tell us a lot. Not financial advice.