We expect Brent crude prices to stay elevated, near USD 110/bbl at the end of the year, as Middle Eastern supply remains volatile and geopolitical uncertainty persists.Global inventories have fallen sharply, with pledged strategic oil reserves releases largely completed. An undersupplied market could push commercial stocks lower and should sustain oil prices. Record freight costs, constrained tanker capacity, and recovering Chinese imports are other factors likely to keep oil prices high.Uncertainty around our forecasts remains elevated, reflecting both the unpredictable nature of the Middle East conflict, and the pace of recovery in Gulf production and global oil demand.