4 min readOct 28, 2026 02:40 PM IST First published on: Oct 28, 2026 at 02:39 PM ISTBy Priti SinghLuiz Inácio Lula da Silva, who by the end of this term will create a record in Brazil’s democratic history for being in power for 16 years, has defied the trend in Latin American elections, where most countries have been turning to the right. Javier Milei is in power in Argentina, while recent presidential elections in Chile and Colombia also saw conservative presidents coming back to power. Lula’s opponent, Flávio Bolsonaro, has protested against the declaration of results, seeking an annulment. The polling hours were extended by two hours that evening after campaign teams from both sides cited inclement weather and transport problems that had prevented voters from reaching polling stations in time.AdvertisementWhat led to this sudden turnaround is a matter of much debate. Was it the complacency of the Bolsonaro camp after their success in the first round and the increased vigour of campaigning by the “Lulistas”? Lula represents the Workers’ Party (PT) in Brazil and is known for his welfare schemes and reforms favouring the poor in the country, especially Bolsa Família, a conditional cash transfer scheme launched by him when he first came to power. Lula himself comes from a humble background, being a metalworker who rose to prominence as a union leader before becoming president in 2003. After completing his first two terms, he left office and later served time in jail on charges of corruption, only to re-emerge as president in 2023.On the other hand, this is the first time Bolsonaro has run for president. He is a lawyer and politician affiliated with the Liberal Party (PL) and has been serving as senator for Rio de Janeiro since 2019. More importantly, he is the son of Jair Bolsonaro, a former far-right president. While the working class has been known to support Lula, the changes in recent years, with many industrial factories shutting down to make way for service industries and delivery-app technology companies, may explain a swing in votes towards Bolsonaro. Moreover, “change” is what most middle-class Latin American voters have been seeking. With rising levels of taxation and unemployment, a struggling economy and the “Uberisation” of the economy — including the growth of small businesses and food and goods delivery services — there are calls for closer attention to middle-class voters. This was evident from the number of abstentions, which had increased in the first round, even though voting is mandatory in Brazil.In a 2013 study, the World Bank pointed to the emergence of a new kind of middle class called the “vulnerable” class between the poor and the middle class, which impacted electoral politics in Latin America. This class, which rose out of poverty but could not quite reach the middle class in the first decade of the 21st century, has developed high expectations and a sense of frustration, reflected in its voting patterns. Called the “Anger Vote” by some, this is what has been used to explain the flip-flop of voters across the Latin American region, who shift their votes from the left to the conservative right and vice versa in each electoral cycle. Lula’s success, thus, comes amid a divided Congress in Brazil and a tumultuous road ahead in domestic politics.AdvertisementIn foreign affairs, Lula’s win brings with it support for multilateralism and a stronger voice for the Global South, as he believes in Brazil’s strategic autonomy and in diversifying its trade partnerships, along with support for climate change action. Bolsonaro emphasised closer relations with the US on trade, security cooperation and critical minerals. However, what these differences actually mean in practice is not very clear. While the governance styles of the two leaders vary, Brazil has certain core interests and institutions that will define its strategic policies, including control over its critical and rare earth minerals, constructive relations and trade with China, as well as with the US. India and Brazil also have an important partnership that is gaining strategic traction and is likely to strengthen further, irrespective of the leadership.The writer is professor, Latin American Studies, Centre for the Study of the Americas, School of International Studies, JNU