Gold rebounds on renewed hopes for US-Iran deal as focus shifts to FOMC decision

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Gold rebounded yesterday on renewed hopes for a US-Iran deal. The market started to move when Iran's state media reported that Iran's security chief met with the Supreme Leader Khamenei. Sources said that Khamenei stressed in the meeting the importance of pursuing Iran's interests and implementing its conditions with the aim of ending the war and the stalemate situation.It was just a quick headline with little substance, but markets reacted positively as they are desperate for good news. The narrative was that Iran’s security chief was bringing the leader some kind of framework for a deal. The markets might also be very sensitive to deal developments given the proximity to the US midterm elections.This morning, Reuters reported that Qatari mediators presented Iran with new draft deal in Tehran on Sunday and that Iran is considering the proposal, with response expected by the end of the week. The report added that the draft sets a seven-day timeline addressing both sides' concerns, each side must make daily confidence-building steps. Timeline could begin early next week depending on Iran’s response.Today we have also the FOMC decision where the Federal Reserve is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged at 3.75–4.00%. With no new projections or dot plot expected at this meeting, changes in Fed Chair Warsh's or statement's language will be the main focus.A surprise rate hike would trigger a hawkish repricing and weigh on gold in the short-term. A largely neutral outcome that avoids signalling an imminent rate hike could be taken as dovish and trigger a relief rally in precious metals. I would also expect the same reaction but with less magnitude in case the Fed just delivers on the hawkish hold expectations, avoiding major surprises.  GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAMEOn the daily chart, we can see that gold(CFD contract) pulled back a bit and it’s approaching the downward trendline. If the price gets there, we can expect the sellers to lean on the trendline, with a defined risk above it, to keep targeting the 3,885 support zone. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to pile in for a rally into the 4,700 level next. GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 4 hour chart, we can see that the price rejected the resistance zone around the 4,070 level as the sellers stepped in to target a drop into the 3,885 level. If we get a breakout, the buyers will likely pile in for new highs, with the downward trendline as the first target. The sellers, on the other hand, will continue to step in around the resistance and the trendline to keep pushing into new lows.GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 1 hour chart, there’s not much we can add here as the sellers will have a better risk to reward setup around the resistance and the trendline, while the buyers will need the price to break above those key levels to open the door for new highs. The red lines define the average daily range for today.UPCOMING CATALYSTSTodaywe have the FOMC rate decision. Tomorrow, we get the US GDP report, the US PCE and the latest US Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, we conclude the week with the US Employment Cost Index. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.