XAUUSD — 4061 Rejected. Is 4010 the Next Liquidity Trap? GoldOANDA:XAUUSDEthan_TraderPro Gold has lost its bullish momentum again. After an impressive recovery from 3,990 towards 4,061, buyers failed to maintain control. Price is now pulling back towards 4,035, bringing an important liquidity zone back into focus. But here's the interesting part. Gold is approaching the same region where the previous bullish expansion began. Could this decline be another liquidity sweep before recovery, or are sellers preparing to push gold below 4,000? My short-term bias remains bearish below 4,061, but I am watching the 4,020–4,010 region for the next major reaction. THE BIGGER STRUCTURE STILL FAVOURS SELLERS Gold continues trading beneath the descending trendline, with lower highs and lower lows defining the broader market structure. The recent rebound from 3,990 showed strong buying momentum, allowing price to break above the previous liquidity around 4,020–4,029. However, buyers failed to sustain the move above 4,061. The latest decline has also broken the short-term rising trendline, suggesting that the recovery is losing strength. From an ICT perspective, the market could now be returning towards lower liquidity before the next directional expansion. Until buyers reclaim higher structural resistance, I continue treating rallies as corrective moves within the broader downtrend. 4061 — THE LEVEL BUYERS MUST RECLAIM The immediate major resistance remains 4,061.306. Price previously consolidated around 4,055–4,061 before selling pressure returned. The latest Volume Profile also highlights concentrated trading activity around this region, making it an important decision area. If gold returns to 4,061 and produces bearish rejection followed by a lower-timeframe Market Structure Shift (MSS), another decline becomes possible. However, a sustained breakout and successful retest above 4,061 would weaken the immediate bearish pressure. That could open the door towards the higher resistance at 4,086–4,092. 4029–4020 — THE NEXT LIQUIDITY TEST The next important decision area is 4,029.861–4,020.646. This region previously acted as a consolidation and breakout structure before gold advanced towards 4,061. Now price is returning towards it. If buyers defend 4,020 and produce a strong bullish reclaim, another recovery could develop. But if sellers push through this area with sustained bearish displacement, attention shifts towards the lower FVG. This is where the setup becomes particularly interesting. 4007–4013 — THE DEMAND ZONE THAT COULD CHANGE THE NEXT MOVE The FVG and demand zone around 4,007–4,013 is my main downside area to monitor. From an ICT perspective, this region represents a potential price imbalance retest following the previous bullish expansion. My preferred bullish reaction would involve a sweep of nearby sell-side liquidity, followed by strong bullish displacement and a confirmed MSS. If that happens, gold could recover towards 4,029 and eventually challenge 4,061. However, if buyers fail to defend the zone and price establishes acceptance below 4,007, the recovery scenario weakens. The next downside references would be 4,000 and 3,990. The important lesson is simple. A liquidity sweep is not a buy signal until the market confirms the reclaim. VOLUME PROFILE AND TRENDLINE CONFLUENCE The Volume Profile highlights two important resistance regions. 4,055–4,061 is where the latest recovery encountered significant trading activity before losing momentum. 4,086–4,092 remains the higher resistance region, supported by previous price structure and the broader descending trendline. Although trading activity is concentrated around these areas, volume alone cannot confirm institutional accumulation or distribution. What matters is whether price accepts or rejects these levels. For now, the descending trendline continues to favour sellers, while the lower demand zone offers a possible location for a corrective recovery. MY TRADING PLAN Scenario One — Liquidity Sweep and Recovery This is my preferred short-term scenario. Gold continues correcting towards 4,020 and potentially the 4,007–4,013 demand zone. If buyers produce a liquidity sweep, bullish displacement and a confirmed MSS, I would watch for recovery towards 4,029 and 4,061. Scenario Two — Bearish Continuation Gold breaks below 4,020 and fails to establish support inside the FVG. Sustained selling pressure below 4,007 could open the way towards 4,000 and eventually 3,990. Scenario Three — Stronger Bullish Recovery Buyers defend lower demand, reclaim 4,029 and successfully break above 4,061. A sustained breakout and retest could support further recovery towards 4,086–4,092. ETHAN'S KEY TRADING ZONES Current Price: 4,035.470 4,086–4,092 — Major Overhead Resistance Higher supply and descending trendline resistance. 4,061.306 — Immediate Major Resistance The key level buyers must reclaim. 4,029.861 — First Liquidity Decision A critical previous breakout reference. 4,020.646 — Key Structural Support The next important downside reaction level. 4,007–4,013 — FVG / Demand Zone The main region for a potential liquidity sweep and bullish confirmation. 4,000 — Psychological Support The next major downside reference if demand fails. 3,990 — Previous Low Region The next lower objective if bearish pressure continues. Bullish Confirmation: Liquidity sweep, strong bullish reclaim and confirmed lower-timeframe MSS. Bearish Confirmation: Failed recovery at resistance or sustained acceptance below 4,007. Short-Term Bearish Invalidation: Sustained breakout above 4,061 with a successful retest. ETHAN'S FINAL VIEW Gold remains under bearish pressure after another rejection around 4,061. The broader descending trendline is still intact, but the market is approaching an area where buyers may attempt another recovery. My preferred scenario is a pullback towards 4,020–4,010, followed by a possible bullish reaction if liquidity is swept and the market structure shifts. If buyers succeed, 4,029 and 4,061 become the next recovery objectives. If demand fails, 4,000 and 3,990 could come back into focus. For now, three levels tell the story. 4,061 — The resistance controlling the recovery. 4,020 — The next important liquidity test. 4,010 — The demand area where buyers must prove themselves. The trend still favours sellers, but chasing price into demand is not my preferred approach. I want to see the reaction, not guess the bottom. Will gold sweep 4,010 before recovering towards 4,061, or will sellers break 4,000 first?