KATIE ROGERS2026年10月29日周一，特朗普总统在密西西比州参加完一场竞选集会后。 Doug Mills/The New York TimesPresident Trump’s private dining room, located just off the Oval Office, is where he goes to watch television, make phone calls and sift through stacks of printed-out news articles and documents that eat up most of the space. A spot has been cleared for Natalie Harp, a devoted aide who now works out of that room when she is not seated behind the president at his desk.特朗普总统的私人餐厅就在椭圆形办公室旁边，他常去这个餐厅里看电视、打电话，翻阅堆积如山、占据了大部分空间的打印版新闻报道和文件。如今，那里为娜塔莉·哈普腾出了一块地方。这位忠诚的助手在不坐在总统办公桌后方时，就在这个房间里工作。Elsewhere, Bill Pulte, a top federal housing official and purveyor of A.I.-generated images and memes that make their way to the president’s social media feed, spends some of his time making posters. He recently made one of Senator Jon Husted of Ohio, a Republican whose backside Mr. Trump has admired, for the president to display while riding aboard Air Force One.在另一处，联邦住房高级官员比尔·普尔特会花些时间制作海报。他擅长制作人工智能生成的图像和表情包，这些内容会进入总统的社交媒体信息流。他最近为俄亥俄州共和党参议员乔恩·赫斯特德制作了一张海报，供总统在乘坐空军一号时展示。特朗普曾称赞赫斯特德的臀部。Amid the loyalists, news clippings, poster boards and pieces of art made by his fans is an increasingly unpredictable president staring down the possibility that the Republican Party could lose both chambers of Congress in next week’s elections.在这些忠诚拥护者、新闻剪报、海报板和粉丝创作的艺术品之间，是一位越来越难以预测的总统，他正面临共和党可能在下周的选举中失去国会两院的局面。Many G.O.P. candidates in tight races have tried to distance themselves from Mr. Trump’s policies, his behavior and the widespread allegations of self-dealing in his administration. Behind the scenes, some political advisers and outside Republican groups have warned the president’s aides that Mr. Trump could do more harm than good by holding rallies in battleground states with uncomfortably close races, according to people with knowledge of the conversations.许多选情胶着的共和党候选人试图与特朗普的政策、行为以及其政府中广泛存在的以权谋私指控保持距离。据了解相关谈话的人士说，在幕后，一些政治顾问和外部共和党团体已警告总统的助手，在选情异常胶着的摇摆州举行集会对特朗普来说可能弊大于利。But the president, under pressure and angry with naysayers, has dismissed polls that reflect his unpopularity, and has raged against unflattering stories that plunge him into a dark mood. Determined to win by turning the midterm season into a referendum on himself, he is set to headline rallies around the country all week, including in Ohio on Wednesday.但总统在压力之下又对反对者心怀愤怒，他无视那些反映其支持率低迷的民调，并对那些令他心情低落的负面报道大发雷霆。他决心将中期选举季转变为针对他本人的公投，并以此赢得胜利，因此本周他将亲自主持全国各地的竞选集会，包括周三在俄亥俄州的集会。Mr. Trump remains convinced that his dominant place in the Republican Party is enough to mitigate a tough political climate. But a grim mood has set in around the White House, which has been rocked by turnover, tension among internal factions and anxiety over what happens should Republicans lose legislative control in Washington, according to 16 current and former administration officials and allies of Mr. Trump’s, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to describe private conversations.特朗普仍然确信，他在共和党内的主导地位足以缓解艰难的政治气候。但据16名现任和前任政府官员及特朗普的盟友们说（他们要求在匿名情况下描述私下谈话），白宫内部已弥漫着一种阴郁的气氛，人员频繁更迭、派系之间紧张对立，人们担心共和党若在华盛顿失去立法控制权后局势将如何发展。Danielle Alvarez, a White House spokeswoman, described the president and his aides as unified in their focus.白宫发言人丹妮尔·阿尔瓦雷斯称总统及其助手在重点上团结一致。“There is only one team that matters in this White House, and that is the team focused on serving President Donald J. Trump and the American people,” Ms. Alvarez said in a statement, adding: “The president’s team remains strong, united and focused on delivering his America First agenda.”“在这个白宫，只有一支重要的团队，那就是专注于服务唐纳德·J·特朗普总统和美国人民的团队，”阿尔瓦雷斯在声明中说，并称：“总统的团队仍然强大、团结，专注于推进他的美国优先议程。”To several current and former White House officials who were around between early 2017 and early 2021, the past few weeks have felt particularly reminiscent of Mr. Trump’s first term. That period was marked by short, explosive staff tenures and infighting. Toward the end, Mr. Trump was struggling to govern during a pandemic. He lashed out as his poll numbers sank, then stoked fear and outrage among his supporters with false claims that the 2020 election was rigged, to the point that a large group attacked the Capitol.对于几位在2017年初至2021年初期间在白宫任职的现任和前任官员来说，过去几周感觉特别让人想起特朗普的第一个任期。那段时期以幕僚任期短暂且动荡不安、内部斗争频发为特征。临近任期结束时，特朗普在疫情肆虐期间苦于无法有效施政。随着民调数字下滑，他大肆发泄不满，然后用2020年选举被操纵的虚假说法煽动支持者的恐惧和愤怒，最终导致一大群人袭击了国会大厦。特朗普周二在得克萨斯州科珀斯克里斯蒂发表讲话。The difference between that term and this one, of course, is that Mr. Trump returned to power with a vengeance, and with a crew of loyalists who stood by him through his years as a political pariah.当然，那个任期和本次任期的区别在于，特朗普卷土重来时气势如虹，身边还聚集了一群忠实追随者，这些人在他沦为政治弃儿的那些年里始终不离不弃。Since returning, he has ordered his Justice Department to carry out a retribution campaign against his perceived enemies. He has unleased a federal crackdown on undocumented immigrants that has swept up U.S. citizens and, at times, led to deadly confrontations. He has continued to trample on the ethical norms that have governed the presidency. And he has two more years to go.自重返白宫以来，他已命令司法部对他眼中的敌人展开报复行动。他发动了联邦对无证移民的打击，这场打击波及美国公民，有时还导致致命对抗。他继续践踏着规范总统职权的道德准则。而他的任期还有两年才结束。Ahead of Tuesday, the stakes are high: Mr. Trump is trying to fend off the oversight and constraints that a Democratic-controlled Congress would bring, and to show that he still commands a strong political base.周二之前局势十分严峻：特朗普正试图抵挡民主党控制的国会将带来的监督和约束，并表明他仍然掌握强大的政治基础。Mr. Trump’s recent appearances have included some of the economic policy-related messaging that Republicans have hoped to see. But that message has often been overshadowed by protesters, the president’s comments about the male physique and his venting sessions about Democrats, including Barack Obama, who recently said that Mr. Trump’s gilded White House renovations looked like “Saddam Hussein opened a Cheesecake Factory.” (The Cheesecake Factory “is a very successful company,” Mr. Trump said at a Mississippi rally on Monday.)特朗普最近的公开露面中包含了一些共和党人希望看到的与经济政策相关的表态。但这些信息常常被抗议者、总统关于男性体型的言论，以及他对民主党人（包括奥巴马）的发泄所掩盖。奥巴马最近说，特朗普镀金的白宫翻修工程看起来像“萨达姆·侯赛因开了一家芝乐坊(Cheesecake Factory)”。（特朗普周一在密西西比州集会上说，芝乐坊“是一家非常成功的公司”。）The president also frequently complains about how hard he is working, privately and publicly.总统还经常私下和公开抱怨自己工作多么辛苦。“I’m working my ass off,” Mr. Trump said in Tennessee earlier this month. “You better get out there and vote.”“我在拼命工作，”特朗普本月早些时候在田纳西州说。“你们最好出去投票。”本月早些时候，特朗普在田纳西州。A person close to the White House political operation who was granted anonymity to describe the strategy said that Mr. Trump’s advisers were aware of the concerns that his presence in critical states could hurt G.O.P. candidates. But they have largely discounted them, believing, as Mr. Trump does, that he should be the centerpiece of this election cycle, the person added. Multiple advisers say the strategy is simple: Focus on red states and juice turnout.一位获准匿名描述策略、且接近白宫政治运作的人士说，特朗普的顾问知道一种担忧：他在关键州的露面可能会伤害共和党候选人。但这名人士补充说，他们在很大程度上不以为意，因为他们和特朗普一样认为，他应该成为这个选举周期的核心。多名顾问说，策略很简单：专注于红州，提高投票率。“The president does have a way of defying history,” Karoline Leavitt, his former press secretary, said during an appearance on the Bill Maher Show last weekend. “He’s working really hard out on the road to turn Republicans out to vote.”“总统确实有办法挑战历史，”他的前新闻秘书卡罗琳·莱维特上周末在《比尔·马赫秀》节目中说。“他正在外面非常努力地工作，让共和党人出来投票。”While speaking to allies in recent days, Mr. Trump has talked up the sizes of the crowds at his rallies, and has noted that Vice President JD Vance, the presumptive Republican front-runner in 2028, has not drawn large numbers to events that he is headlining.最近几天与盟友交谈时，特朗普大肆夸耀自己竞选集会的参与人数，并指出2028年共和党推定领跑者、副总统万斯领衔的活动中没有吸引到大量人群。Mr. Vance’s office did not respond to a request for comment, but the White House came to the vice president’s defense.万斯的办公室没有回应置评请求，但白宫为副总统辩护。“Donald Trump is the hardest working person in the country, followed by JD Vance,” Ms. Alvarez said. “Both men are raising money, crisscrossing the country and making sure that candidates are successful these midterms.” Advisers close to the White House, who are bracing for Republicans to at least lose the House, expect Mr. Trump to make changes to his administration, depending on how next Tuesday goes. Presidents have typically reset their staffing after rough election cycles.“唐纳德·特朗普是这个国家最努力工作的人，其次就是JD·万斯，”阿尔瓦雷斯说。“两人都在筹款、奔波全国，确保候选人在这次中期选举中获胜。”接近白宫的顾问们正为共和党至少失去众议院控制权做准备，他们预计，特朗普将根据下周二选举结果对内阁进行调整。总统们通常会在艰难的选举周期后重置其团队。特朗普周日现身密歇根州。本月以来，他几乎每天都在为共和党中期选举候选人举行助选集会。Mr. Trump made one jarring hiring decision on his own when he led the charge this fall to hire Katie Zacharia, a cable news pundit, as his new press secretary. The president, who had grown frustrated with the slow process to find a replacement for Ms. Leavitt, had watched clips of Ms. Zacharia and decided to quickly name her to the role, before a formal vetting process could be completed, according to people with knowledge of the situation. She found few internal allies.特朗普在今年秋天亲自做出了一个令人震惊的任命决定：他推动聘请有线电视新闻评论员凯蒂·扎卡里亚担任新任新闻秘书。据了解情况的人士说，总统对寻找莱维特替代者的缓慢过程感到沮丧，在观看了扎卡里亚女士的片段后，他决定在正式审查程序完成之前迅速任命她担任新闻秘书。她在白宫内部几乎没有盟友。While Ms. Zacharia traveled with Mr. Trump during her short tenure, she was not invited to attend daily senior staff meetings convened by Mr. Trump’s chief of staff, Susie Wiles, according to people familiar with the dynamic. After a rocky debut in the press briefing room, Ms. Zacharia was ousted after five days.据熟悉内情的人士说，扎卡里亚在其短暂任期内曾随特朗普出行，但没有被邀请参加由特朗普幕僚长苏西·威尔斯召集的每日高级职员会议。在新闻简报室经历了一场艰难的首秀后，扎卡里亚在五天后被撤换。Some White House observers viewed Ms. Zacharia’s hiring as a sign of Ms. Wiles’s declining influence with Mr. Trump, so much that they began circulating ideas about who could succeed her. Mr. Trump has publicly pushed back on reports that he is unhappy with or seeking to replace her.一些白宫观察人士认为，扎卡里亚被聘任表明威尔斯在特朗普心中的影响力正在减弱，甚至有人开始讨论谁能接替威尔斯的职位。特朗普公开反驳了有关他对威尔斯不满或寻求替换她的报道。“Susie is here,” Mr. Trump told reporters earlier this month, “and she’s going to be here for a long time.”“苏西在这里，”特朗普本月早些时候告诉记者，“而且她会在这里待很长时间。”Emily Davies对本文有报道贡献。Katie Rogers是时报白宫记者，报道特朗普总统。翻译：晋其角点击查看本文英文版。