CADCHF: Fourth Knock on the September Ceiling. Buy the Retest?CAD/CHFOANDA:CADCHFAlgoVaultsCADCHF is knocking on the September ceiling for the fourth time. The 16 September spike topped out at 0.5908. Friday stalled at 0.5901, Monday tagged 0.5908 again, and this morning it's sat right under it around 0.5906. Every pullback in between has been bought a little higher. So the question is simple: does it finally break, and is the retest the buy? As always, I start top-down: monthly and weekly for the bigger picture, daily and 4H for the zone, then the 1H and 30m for the entry. Monthly: CADCHF bottomed at 0.5600 in October 2025 and 0.5608 in January this year. That double bottom has held all year. Price is back above the monthly 20 MA (around 0.5807), and the monthly MACD has crossed back up from below zero. This is the highest level since June 2025. Weekly: Higher lows: 0.5733 in August, 0.5790 at the start of October, then 0.5803-0.5808 mid October. The weekly 20 MA (around 0.5803) is above the 50 MA (around 0.5754), and weekly MACD is above zero and above its signal line. Overhead is the old 2025 shelf. Weekly lows between May and June 2025 sat at 0.5912-0.5945, and the closes held around 0.5950-0.5990 before it broke down in late June. Daily: Price is above the daily 20, 50 and 200 MAs (around 0.5850, 0.5848 and 0.5750). Daily RSI is around 63. Strong, but not overextended. The October dips held at 0.5811 and 0.5808, and last week's low was 0.5837. Buyers keep stepping in higher. 4H: Friday and Monday both pushed up into 0.5900-0.5908 and both times it came off but didn't fall far. Monday's dip only reached 0.5867. That's pressure building under the level, not sellers taking control. My buy zone is 0.5885-0.5905. That's the September ceiling and the last three days of highs, which should flip to support once it breaks. The backdrop: the Bank of Canada meets on Wednesday and markets are leaning towards a hike, with oil still around 100. That's supportive for CAD, but expect a spike either way on the day. 1H and 30m: I'm not buying it sitting under the ceiling. I want the break first. Trigger is a 4H close above 0.5910. Then I want price to drop back into 0.5885-0.5905 and show me a bullish rejection on the 1H or 30m. A long lower wick or a bullish engulfing candle. No break, no trade. Break with no retest, I'll leave it. What I'm Watching Next A clean 4H close above 0.5910 is first. 0.5910 holds as support and 0.5945 comes into play. That's the top of the 2025 shelf. 0.5945 breaks and 0.6000 is on the cards. Round number and the 2025 closing area. How I'm Looking To Trade It Aggressive: after the 4H close above 0.5910, buy a 1H or 30m rejection inside 0.5885-0.5905, entry around 0.5895. Stop below 0.5855, under Monday's low. Take something off the table at 0.5945 and trail the rest towards 0.6000. Conservative: wait for the daily close above 0.5910, then buy the first 4H higher low that holds the zone, stop under that low. Same targets. From 0.5895 that's about 40 pips of risk for 50 pips to the first target and 105 to the second. Roughly 1:1.25 and 1:2.6. The first target is close, which is why I'd rather take a partial there and let the rest run. What changes my mind: A daily close back below 0.5870. That says the break failed and the September ceiling is still the ceiling. If that happens the long is off the table and I'd rather wait than force it. Does this mean the franc has turned for good? Not really. This is a breakout and retest on one cross, not a long-term call. There is the possibility that I am wrong :) What are you seeing on CADCHF: fourth time lucky through 0.5905, or another rejection back into the range? Not financial advice, just how I'm looking at it.