South Korea Q3 GDP grows 1.0%, beating forecasts as AI chip boom lifts exports

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The strength of the beat, and the KOSPI sidecar on a sharp rally, underline how heavily Korean assets now trade on the AI chip cycle. That cuts both ways: it supports exporters and chip names while global AI demand holds up, but leaves the market exposed to any wobble in the global AI trade. The data reinforce the Bank of Korea’s hawkish bias after its July and September hikes, which should support the won and keep pressure on short-end bond yields. Weak consumption is the main argument against further tightening, so household-sensitive sectors are likely to keep lagging.---South Korea is riding the AI chip boom hard enough to set off market circuit-breakers, but its households are sitting this one out.Summary:South Korea’s Q3 GDP grew 1.0% q/q, beating the 0.7% forecast and up from 0.6% in Q2; y/y growth was 3.4% versus 3.0% expectedThe Bank of Korea estimates semiconductors drive about half of growth; annual growth could reach 3.7% if Q4 holds at Q3 levelsExports rose 2.3% and facilities investment jumped 4.1%, led by chip equipmentPrivate consumption fell 0.2%, the first decline in nearly four years, hit by a stock slump and auto strikesExports topped $800 billion in January to September and are on track to pass $1 trillion this yearThe KOSPI’s strong rise triggered a sidecar halt on program tradingSouth Korea’s economy grew faster than expected in the third quarter as the global AI chip boom lifted exports and investment, advance Bank of Korea estimates showed on Tuesday, though weak household spending marked a notable soft spot. Gross domestic product rose 1.0% from the previous quarter, beating the 0.7% median forecast in a Reuters poll and accelerating from 0.6% in the second quarter.Korean equities rallied strongly on the session, with the move in the KOSPI triggering a sidecar, a temporary halt on program trading that the Korea Exchange applies when index futures move sharply, to cool momentum-driven orders.The scale of the beat was striking against the central bank’s own expectations. The Bank of Korea had forecast 0.3% growth for the quarter in August, when it projected 3.3% growth for the year. If fourth-quarter output simply holds at third-quarter levels, annual growth would now come in at around 3.7%. A central bank official estimated that semiconductors are driving about half of the economy’s growth.Exports rose 2.3% in the quarter on demand for chips, machinery and electrical equipment, while facilities investment jumped 4.1%, led by semiconductor manufacturing equipment. South Korea’s exports topped $800 billion in the first nine months, already above last year’s full-year record, putting the country on track to become only the fourth to pass $1 trillion in a year, after the US, China and Germany.The weak link is consumption. Private spending fell 0.2%, the first decline in nearly four years, as financial services activity dropped amid a stock market slump and car purchases fell due to strikes at major automakers. The central bank expects a gradual recovery as chip firms’ dividend payouts in the fourth quarter and employee bonuses early next year lift household incomes, though one economist cautioned that a soft labour market and restrictive interest rates limit the scope for a strong rebound. Consumer sentiment also slipped in October.The Bank of Korea held rates last week after back-to-back hikes in July and September but kept a hawkish stance, and today’s data give it little reason to soften that. On a year-on-year basis, GDP grew 3.4%, also above the 3.0% expected.  This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.