ANDREW HIGGINS2026年10月27日周一，塞尔维亚长期执政的领导人亚历山大·武契奇在贝尔格莱德承认败选后，“学生名单——学生获胜”竞选名单的支持者们欢庆胜利。 Djordje Kojadinovic/ReutersWhen voters in Hungary rejected their seemingly invincible populist leader Viktor Orban in April, Andrej Borovac, a young designer in neighboring Serbia, was ecstatic, but he was downbeat about his own country’s populist strongman suffering the same fate.今年4月，匈牙利选民拒绝了看似不可战胜的民粹主义领导人维克托·欧尔班时，邻国塞尔维亚的年轻设计师安德烈·博罗瓦茨欣喜若狂，但对于自己国家的民粹强人是否会遭遇同样命运，他却感到悲观。“That can never happen here,” he recalled thinking. Aleksandar Vucic, Serbia’s dominant political figure since 2012, looked immovable, given his grip — established over more than a decade in power — on security forces, nearly all major media outlets, the electoral commission and many other institutions. Or so he thought.“这种事在塞尔维亚永远不会发生，”他回忆自己当时的想法。亚历山大·武契奇自2012年以来一直是塞尔维亚政坛的主导人物。凭借十多年执政建立起来的对安全部队、几乎所有主要媒体、选举委员会和许多其他机构的控制，他看上去不可撼动。至少博罗瓦茨当时是这么想的。On Sunday night, Mr. Borovac, 38, and two friends joined tens of thousands of people gathered near Parliament in Belgrade, the Serbian capital, to celebrate Mr. Vucic’s defeat in a pivotal election for a new legislature.周日晚上，38岁的博罗瓦茨和两个朋友加入了数万人的行列，聚集在塞尔维亚首都贝尔格莱德议会附近，庆祝武契奇在一场决定新立法机构的关键选举中落败。“The Hungarian Spring has come to Serbia in the fall,” Mr. Borovac said late Sunday night, surrounded by revelers waving Serbian flags and setting off red flares. Nearby, a group of young Serbs danced for joy.“匈牙利之春在秋天来到了塞尔维亚，”博罗瓦茨周日深夜说。周围是挥舞塞尔维亚国旗、点燃红色信号棒的欢庆者。附近，一群年轻塞尔维亚人欢快地跳舞。匈牙利前总理维克托·欧尔班去年在白宫与特朗普总统会面。At a time of rising liberal fears of surging support for right-wing nationalists, the formerly Communist East, an early pioneer of populist politics after the collapse of Soviet hegemony in 1989, is showing that tides can turn.在自由派日益担忧右翼民族主义者支持率飙升之际，曾经是共产主义阵营的东欧——作为1989年苏联霸权崩溃后民粹主义政治的早期先驱——正在表明潮流可以逆转。Elections this year in Hungary and Serbia, and in Poland in 2023, have given new life to mostly forgotten liberal hopes voiced in “The Power of the Powerless,” a 1978 book by Vaclav Havel, the Czech dissident who would later become president and a global icon for believers in liberal democracy.今年匈牙利和塞尔维亚的选举，以及2023年波兰的选举，让瓦茨拉夫·哈维尔1978年所著的《无权者的权力》一书中提出的、很大程度上已被遗忘的自由主义希望重获新生。哈维尔是捷克异见人士，后来成为总统，并成为自由民主信仰者的全球偶像。Anger at rampant corruption helped glue together disparate and sometimes contradictory political forces, allowing them to campaign on an issue that resonated with a wider population upset by the conspicuous wealth of people connected to the governing party.对普遍腐败的愤怒帮助凝聚了不同且有时相互矛盾的政治力量，使他们能够围绕一个议题竞选，而这个议题引起了更广泛民众的共鸣——这些民众对执政党相关人士显赫的财富深感不满。In Germany, France and Italy and elsewhere in Western Europe, the anti-establishment nationalist camp has taken on the appearance of an invincible juggernaut, and it may yet show strongly in a raft of elections next year. But for the moment, in Eastern Europe and beyond, it is newly showing signs of strain.在德国、法国、意大利和西欧其他地方，反建制民族主义阵营呈现出不可战胜的巨无霸形象，并可能在明年一系列选举中表现强劲。但就目前而言，在东欧及其他地区，该阵营新近显示出承压迹象。On the same day as Serbia’s election, voters in Brazil narrowly rejected an all but preordained victory for the hard right and handed a win to the leftist president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.在塞尔维亚选举的同一天，巴西选民以微弱优势拒绝了强硬右翼几乎预定的胜利，将胜利交给了左翼总统卢拉。周一的报纸头版报道了巴西大选卢拉获胜的消息。The Serbian election will also add to the discomfit of President Trump’s MAGA movement, which for now lags in many polls ahead of what is expected to be a difficult election next week. It had looked to the Serbian leader as a kindred spirit committed to defending national sovereignty and resisting European liberals. Mr. Trump’s family eyed it for business deals.塞尔维亚选举也将加剧特朗普总统MAGA运动的尴尬处境。在预计将于下周举行的一场艰难选举前夕，该运动目前在许多民调中均处于落后地位。这场运动曾把这位塞尔维亚领导人视为志同道合者，认为他致力于捍卫国家主权、抵抗欧洲自由派。特朗普家族还将塞尔维亚视为开展商业交易的潜在对象。A few weeks before the election, the Conservative Political Action Conference, or CPAC, a MAGA-aligned American organization, announced that it would hold its first gathering in the Balkan region, to be held in Belgrade in November and “headlined by President Aleksandar Vucic.”选举前几周，与美国MAGA结盟的组织“保守派政治行动会议”(CPAC)宣布，将于11月在贝尔格莱德举办其在巴尔干地区的首次集会，届时“亚历山大·武契奇总统将作为主讲嘉宾出席”。CPAC had previously focused its European activities on Hungary, where it held a big annual gathering, now in doubt following Mr. Orban’s defeat and the end of state funding by the new government to foundations that helped bankroll various ventures by “anti-woke” warriors from abroad.CPAC此前将其欧洲活动集中在匈牙利，在那里举行大型年度集会。如今，在欧尔班落败、新政府停止向那些曾资助海外“反觉醒”斗士各类行动的基金会提供国家拨款，这一集会能否举行已成疑问。Even in Eastern Europe, the momentum has not been all one-way, and it often zigzags. Parliamentary elections in Slovenia this year and the Czech Republic last year as well as a presidential vote in Poland all saw nationalist forces prevail, albeit by tiny margins.即便在东欧，势头也并非全是单向的，而且常常曲折反复。今年斯洛文尼亚和去年捷克共和国的议会选举，以及波兰的总统选举，都是民族主义力量获胜，尽管优势微弱。Also, the forces that have proved ascendant against the nationalist right are themselves a mixed bag that are far from being liberal globalists. Mr. Orban was defeated by a new party led by Peter Magyar, a conservative former Orban loyalist, and Mr. Vucic by a slate of student-selected candidates, nearly all newcomers to politics.此外，那些在与民族主义右翼的较量中占据上风的力量本身也是五花八门，远非自由派全球主义者。欧尔班被彼得·马扎尔领导的新政党击败，马扎尔是保守派、欧尔班的前忠实拥护者；武契奇则被一份由学生选出的候选人名单击败，这些人几乎全是政坛新人。Thorsten Benner, director of the Global Public Policy Institute in Berlin, said the lesson from both Hungary and Serbia was that “at some point, anti-incumbency bias or rage hits these authoritarians,” though the alternative “won’t be picture-perfect liberals.”柏林全球公共政策研究所所长托尔斯滕·本纳说，匈牙利和塞尔维亚的教训是，“到了某个时候，反对现任者的偏见或愤怒会击中这些威权主义者”，尽管替代者“也不会是完美无缺的自由派”。“The real positive lesson,” he added “is that these authoritarians can actually lose elections and concede defeat.”他还说，“真正积极的教训是，这些威权主义者实际上可能输掉选举并承认失败。”The political party that underpinned Mr. Vucic’s long ascendancy is called the Serbian Progressive Party, hardly a right-wing outfit. It has railed against privatization and vowed to keep big chunks of the economy, which has grown robustly, under state control.支撑武契奇长期执政的政党叫塞尔维亚进步党，很难算是一个右翼团体。该党一直抨击私有化，并誓言将经济中增长强劲的大部分领域保持在国家控制之下。After a record turnout of nearly 70 percent, his party won 39 percent of the vote compared with 52 percent for its main opponent, a new political grouping that emerged from nearly two years of student-led protest called Student List-Students Win.在投票率创下近70%的历史新高后，武契奇的政党获得39%的选票，而其主要对手赢得52%。主要对手是一个新的政治团体，诞生于近两年学生领导的抗议，名为“学生名单—学生获胜”。The Student List has itself embraced nationalist themes. Many of the people rejoicing Sunday night on the street flashed the three-finger Serbian salute, a patriotic gesture used by marauding ethnic Serb troops during the Balkan wars of the 1990s.“学生名单”本身也接纳了民族主义主题。周日晚上在街头欢庆的许多人比出塞尔维亚三指礼，这是20世纪90年代巴尔干战争期间，横行霸道的塞族部队使用的一种爱国手势。Miljana Pejic, 33, a youth trainer who joined Sunday night’s street celebrations, said the salute in its current use was not a throwback to dark nationalist passions but a “reclaiming and reframing of Serb symbols” that had been hijacked.33岁的青年培训师米利亚娜·佩伊奇加入了周日晚上街头的庆祝活动。她说，这种手势在当下的使用并不是要回到黑暗的民族主义激情，而是“重新夺回和重新界定”被劫持的塞尔维亚象征。“We love our country so perhaps we are nationalist,” she said, “But everything the students advocate — the rule of law, anti-corruption, independent institutions — is in line with the values of the European Union,” she said.“我们热爱我们的国家，所以也许我们是民族主义者，”她说，“但学生们倡导的一切——法治、反腐败、独立机构——都符合欧盟的价值观。”Serbia applied to join the European bloc in 2009, but its application largely stalled under Mr. Vucic, whose brand of nationalism and illiberal politics closely resembled that of his ally Mr. Orban in Hungary.塞尔维亚于2009年申请加入欧盟，但在武契奇治下，其申请基本停滞。武契奇的民族主义和非自由主义政治路线与他的盟友、匈牙利的欧尔班非常相似。In the end, both men nonetheless conceded defeat when it became obvious that the groundswell of discontent from voters had overwhelmed their best, years-old attempts to tilt the political playing field their way, not least by manipulating the media.最终，选民不满的浪潮明显压倒了两人多年来为使政治竞争环境偏向自己而作出的最大努力——尤其是操纵媒体，随后这两位领导人还是承认了失败。长期主导塞尔维亚政坛的亚历山大·武契奇周日在贝尔格莱德发表了败选演说。In an early concession speech Sunday evening, Mr. Vucic lamented that “they toppled us,” blaming his defeat on shadowy foreign forces. The election result, he said, “was the verification of a revolution carried out with direct support from various European countries and the American deep state — the one opposed to President Trump.”在周日晚上早些时候的承认败选演讲中，武契奇哀叹“他们推翻了我们”，并将失败归咎于神秘的外国势力。他说，选举结果“验证了一场革命，这场革命得到各种欧洲国家和美国深层政府的直接支持——那个反对特朗普总统的深层政府”。But his biggest problem, as was Mr. Orban’s, was that the election largely became a referendum on himself: he had stopped being popular and, accused of ties to gangsters, become instead a hate figure for large segments of the population, no matter what their political orientations.但正如欧尔班一样，他最大的问题是，这场选举在很大程度上变成了对他本人的公投：他已不再受欢迎，被指控与黑帮有牵连，被各种政治取向的广大民众所仇恨。Dimitar Bechev, a senior fellow at Carnegie Europe and an expert on the Balkans, said he was surprised by the opposition’s wide margin of victory but added: “You overstay your welcome after many years.”卡内基欧洲高级研究员、巴尔干问题专家迪米塔尔·贝切夫说，他对反对派以如此大的优势获胜感到惊讶，但他还说：“在位多年后，就会让人感到厌倦。”In both Hungary and Serbia, he said, “when you have a strongman figure, you have a coalition from liberals to people on the far right fed up.”他说，在匈牙利和塞尔维亚，“一旦出现一个强人领袖，就会出现一个从自由派到厌倦的极右翼人士的联盟”。Bozo Prelevic, an opposition-aligned lawyer, on Monday compared Mr. Vucic to a malignant tumor. “Serbia has freed itself after a long and serious illness, a cancer that was destroying both society and the state, setting citizens against one another and invoking war,” he told N1, an opposition-friendly television chancel.周一，与反对派结盟的律师博佐·普雷列维奇将武契奇比作恶性肿瘤。“塞尔维亚在经历漫长而严重的疾病后解放了自己，这是一种正在摧毁社会和国家的癌症，它让公民相互对立，并煽动战争，”他在亲反对派的N1电视台上说。It is unclear what the Student List’s victorious candidates want to do in terms of policy once they take their seats in a new Parliament, which must convene within 30 days of the announcement of the final results. Their campaign revolved around a single issue: getting rid of Mr. Vucic and uprooting what they called his corrupt “mafia.”目前尚不清楚“学生名单”的获胜候选人在进入新议会后想推行什么政策。新议会必须在最终结果公布后30天内召开。他们的竞选围绕一个单一议题：赶走武契奇，并根除他们所称的腐败“黑手党”。The slate of candidates selected by student activists includes no students and comprises academics, musicians, activists, actors, athletes and others from a wide range of backgrounds. Most have no experience in politics or government.由学生活动人士选出的候选人名单中没有学生，而是由学者、乐手、活动人士、演员、运动员和其他来自广泛背景的人组成。大多数人没有政治或政府经验。The first candidate on the list was Ilija Srdanovic, a cardiologist from the city of Novi Sad, but he is not the head of a hierarchical party with power to set policy and tell fellow Student List members of Parliament what to do.名单上的第一候选人是诺维萨德市的心脏病专家伊利亚·斯尔达诺维奇，但他并非某个等级森严的政党的领导人，没有权力制定政策并告诉“学生名单”的其他议员该怎么做。In his first public remarks after the election, Mr. Srdanovic chided those who had questioned whether such an amorphous political movement could defeat Mr. Vucic.在选举后的首次公开讲话中，斯尔达诺维奇斥责了那些质疑如此松散的政治运动能否击败武契奇的人。“We believed not just in victory, but in a victory so clear that it could not be concealed,” he told RT Balkan, a Russian state-funded news outlet aimed at Serbia.“我们相信的不只是胜利，而是一场清晰到无法掩盖的胜利，”他告诉面向塞尔维亚的俄罗斯国家资助新闻机构RT巴尔干频道。心脏病专家伊利亚·斯尔达诺维奇名列学生抗议者选出的反对派候选人名单之首，周日，他在贝尔格莱德欢庆胜利。Alisa Dogramadzieva自贝尔格莱德、Steven Erlanger自柏林对本文有报道贡献。Andrew Higgins是时报东欧和中欧分社社长，常驻华沙。翻译：纽约时报中文网点击查看本文英文版。获取更多RSS：https://feedx.net https://feedx.site