Israel is heading for its national elections on Tuesday, and the polling for all 120 seats in the Knesset is likely to decide Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s political trajectory. It’s the first ever election since the October 7 Hamas attack in 2022, the deadliest security failure in Israel’s history, followed by the wars in Gaza, Lebanon and Iran.The current government is a coalition of far-right and ultra-Orthodox partners, who pushed Israel in nationalist and religious directions.Opinion polls have suggested a neck-and-neck fight between the right-wing alliance led by the country’s longest-serving prime minister and a Jewish-led opposition alliance. However, the stakes are high, and a mere defeat at the polling booths does not mean Netanyahu will have to step down. To form a government, a party needs to win 61 seats, which has never happened in the country’s 81-year history.Instead of individual candidates, Israelis vote for party lists. Dozens of lists come up in each cycle, and those surpassing a 3.25% vote threshold secure seats and enter the 120-seat Knesset. According to polls, 11 to 13 parties are likely to meet the target, and seats will be allocated through a proportional representation system.Netanyahu’s right-wing Likud and Yashar, a new centrist party led by Gadi Eisenkot, a former military chief of staff, are the two key parties.Citing Channel 12, CNN said opinion polls projected Eisenkot first with 23 seats, ahead of the Likud with 21. Channel 14, a pro-Netanyahu media outlet, projected his party to secure 30 seats and Eisenkot about 20. In the tight race over who is better suited for the top job in the country, Eisenkot led Netanyahu by a steady margin.As mentioned earlier, coming out as the largest party will not grant victory. The real fight will be over the coalition calculus that follows, which may span days, weeks and even months.These are the possible outcomes:Story continues below this adNetanyahu comes to power againEven if Netanyahu trailed by a narrow margin, he could secure power if his Likud party gathers enough parliamentary support from existing allies or new coalition partners. Far-right National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir’s Jewish Power party and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich’s Religious Zionism party are among his traditional partners.Ultra-Orthodox parties Shas and United Torah Judaism could play a pivotal role. Both parties have joined Netanyahu’s alliance multiple times, but also have a history of quitting the group, as in 2025.Opposition-led alliance comes to powerWith no prime ministerial candidate declared yet, four opposition parties have signed a non-aggression pact, vowing to work together to unseat Netanyahu.Eisenkot has parties led by former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett and former Defense Minister Avigdor Liberman to his right, and the Democrats party led by Yair Golan on his left. Bennett and Liberman have not publicly supported Eisenkot, and both of them aspire to the top job, CNN reported.Story continues below this adCoalition including PalestiniansThe two Arab-led parties representing the Palestinian citizens of Israel, the Joint List and Ra’am, are poised to win about 13 seats. They constitute 20 percent of the population. While opposition leaders including Eisenkot rubbished the possibility of an alliance with them, Mansour Abbas, leader of Ra’am, remained open to such an arrangement if the need arises.National unity governmentAs per Israel’s parliament, it’s a government based on a broad coalition, the members of which constitute representatives of rival parliamentary groups. It is formed during challenging times, such as war, natural disasters or economic crises.Rotating premiership, different prime minister and another electionOther possible scenarios arise when no party or leader can gain consensus. In the first case, two political leaders could agree to switch roles as prime minister under a power-sharing arrangement. Netanyahu and Gantz had agreed to such a switch in 2020. However, their coalition collapsed and Gantz could not assume office.The prime minister is voted in by members of the Knesset after an election, and if talks hit a roadblock over government formation, parties could agree to support another Knesset member from either the ruling coalition or the opposition bloc.Story continues below this adIsrael could also head for another period of political uncertainty and hold a new election altogether. In that case, Netanyahu would remain caretaker prime minister till a new government is formed. The country witnessed five elections between 2019 and 2022 when opposing parties grappled to form stable governments.With inputs from Al Jazeera, CNN