ERIN GRIFFITH, LAUREN HIRSCH2026年10月27日Anthropic旧金山总部。该公司的挂牌上市将成为检验此轮人工智能繁荣持续性的关键试金石。 David Paul Morris/BloombergWhen Anthropic goes public as soon as next month, its initial offering will be more than just a coming-out party for the artificial intelligence company. It will also be a litmus test for the economy, with trillions of dollars at stake.Anthropic最早将于下个月上市，届时它的首次公开募股不仅仅会是一家人工智能公司的亮相派对，还将成为对经济的一次试金石考验，关乎数万亿美元的利益。Anthropic, which makes the Claude chatbot, is a tent pole of the A.I. industry. Valued in the private markets at nearly $1 trillion and backed by more than $130 billion in funding, it could raise $100 billion in its offering and promptly become one of the world’s biggest public companies. But the stakes are even higher than that.制造Claude聊天机器人的Anthropic是人工智能行业的一根台柱。它在私募市场估值近1万亿美元，并获得超过1300亿美元融资支持，可能在其发行中筹集1000亿美元，从而迅速成为世界上最大的上市公司之一。而此事还关系到更大的利益。Anthropic and OpenAI, its chief rival, sit atop a pyramid of business partners and suppliers — infrastructure providers, chipmakers, energy companies and A.I. start-ups — that have all spent heavily over the past four years because they believe demand for A.I. products will keep growing.Anthropic及其主要竞争对手OpenAI位于一个由商业伙伴和供应商组成的金字塔顶端——基础设施提供商、芯片制造商、能源公司和人工智能初创企业——它们在过去的四年里都投入巨资，因为它们相信对人工智能产品的需求将持续增长。Anthropic’s listing will provide the first in-depth look at the health of a key business underlying the A.I. boom — and will be a test of its durability. Is there unending appetite for A.I. services to justify the spending on chips, data centers and other infrastructure? Or will Anthropic’s performance show that there are limits?Anthropic的挂牌上市，将让外界首次得以深度审视支撑此轮人工智能繁荣的关键企业的健康状况，同时也将检验其增长的持续性。市场对人工智能服务的需求是否真如无底洞般旺盛，足以证明在芯片、数据中心及其他基建上的庞大开支是合理的？抑或Anthropic的表现将表明，这一切是有局限的？“For the market, it’s a bellwether,” said Umesh Padval, an investor at Seligman Ventures, who has worked in tech for nearly 40 years.在科技界从业近40年的塞利格曼风投公司投资人乌梅什·帕德瓦尔指出：“对整个市场而言，这是一个关键的风向标。”If Anthropic disappoints in its public debut, that could hurt investor confidence and cascade into a wider market sell-off, casting doubts on how much longer the A.I. boom can go. A successful offering could lift the market and pave the way for more A.I. companies to go public.若Anthropic上市首秀不及预期，不仅可能打击投资者信心，引发更大范围的市场抛售，还会让外界对人工智能繁荣还能维系多久产生怀疑。反之，一次成功的募股则有望提振市场，并为更多人工智能企业上市铺平道路。Stock markets are already on edge, with technology stocks broadly falling this month, led by a sell-off in the companies that design and produce the computer chips that power A.I. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index is in a bear market, defined as a decline of 20 percent or more from a recent high and a sign of significant investor angst, after falling 26 percent from its June peak.此时的股票市场本已处于紧张状态，科技板块本月整体走低，主要受设计与生产人工智能芯片的企业遭遇抛售所拖累。费城半导体指数较6月峰值下跌26%，已进入熊市——即较近期高点下跌20%或以上，是投资者严重焦虑的信号。Over the past couple of weeks, Microsoft canceled a deal with Nscale, a provider of data centers. A report from the research firm Gartner predicted that 80 percent of “neoclouds,” the companies that provide data and computing power for A.I. firms, could be forced out of business. And Ken Griffin, the billionaire owner of the hedge fund Citadel, said A.I. investors were “almost certainly” in a bubble.过去几周内，微软取消了与数据中心提供商Nscale的一项合作协议。研究机构高德纳在报告中预测，为人工智能公司供应数据与算力的“新兴云公司”中，多达80%恐将被迫退出市场。对冲基金城堡投资的亿万富翁所有者肯·格里芬亦公开表示，人工智能投资者“几乎肯定”身处泡沫之中。Those negative signals have added to fears about the huge piles of money being spent on A.I. infrastructure. Amazon, Meta, Google and Microsoft have said they plan to spend at least $740 billion on A.I. infrastructure, including data centers, this year. Private market investors have poured $1.1 trillion into Anthropic, OpenAI and other A.I. companies since 2022, according to PitchBook, which tracks investments.这一连串负面信号加剧了市场对投入人工智能基础设施的巨额资金的担忧。亚马逊、Meta、谷歌与微软此前均表示，今年在数据中心等人工智能基础设施领域的开支计划合计不少于7400亿美元。另据投资监测机构PitchBook统计，自2022年以来，私募市场投资者向Anthropic、OpenAI及其他人工智能企业注入的资金总规模已达1.1万亿美元。佐治亚州卡温顿的Meta数据中心。Meta、亚马逊、谷歌与微软表示，今年在AI基础设施领域的开支计划合计不少于7400亿美元。路易斯安那州圣弗朗西斯维尔的数据中心园区于本月举行开工仪式，该园区专用于Anthropic旗下Claude模型的运行。As spending and investment have risen in private markets, public investments have grown, too, increasing the stock market’s reliance on the performance of the A.I. industry. The top 10 stocks in the S&P 500 are worth more than $1 trillion together, with eight of them being tech companies. Combined, the top 10 account for over 40 percent of the index, up from less than 20 percent a decade ago.随着私募市场的支出与投资双双攀升，公开市场投资也同步增长，导致股市对人工智能产业表现的依赖进一步加深。标普500指数排名前十的成分股均跨过万亿美元市值门槛，其中八家为科技公司。这十家企业合计占该指数权重的40%以上，较十年前不足20%的比重翻倍。When Anthropic is added to the index, it is likely to displace either Berkshire Hathaway or Eli Lilly, the only non-tech companies with valuations above $1 trillion, from the top 10.待Anthropic正式纳入标普500指数后，很可能将前十名中仅有的两家估值超过1万亿美元的非科技公司——伯克希尔·哈撒韦或礼来公司——挤出前十名。“There is a lot riding on this one,” said Brad Gastwirth, the global head of research and market intelligence at Circular Technology, a supply chain services firm. “If it goes bad, it’s going to bring down the market.”供应链服务机构圆环科技全球研究与市场情报主管布拉德·加斯特沃思表示：“这场IPO牵涉极广。一旦出现闪失，将拖累整个大盘。”On Monday, Anthropic filed its offering prospectus, revealing details of its fast revenue growth and plans to spend up to $807 billion on data centers, chips and cloud computing over the next decade.周一，Anthropic正式递交招股说明书，公布了其营收飞速增长的具体细节，并披露未来十年内计划在数据中心、芯片与云计算领域支出最高可达8070亿美元。The filing did not include Anthropic’s performance from the third quarter, which it presented to investors at its San Francisco headquarters this month. The company’s revenue hit $16.8 billion in the third quarter, up 45 percent from the prior quarter. But investors compared that with the even faster growth of 141 percent that the second quarter had from the first quarter.该文件并未包含第三季度的业绩，不过Anthropic本月已在旧金山总部向投资者作了通报。该公司第三季度营收达168亿美元，环比增长45%；但与第二季度环比第一季度高达141%的爆发式增速相比，投资者已注意到增速显著放缓。How Anthropic explains that slowdown will be important. If it was because the company lost market share to OpenAI or companies using cheaper open-source A.I. models — the technology that powers chatbots and other tools that generate videos, text and computer code — that means the overall demand for A.I. services remains healthy. If Anthropic’s growth slowed because the entire market saw less demand for A.I. products, the reaction could be more dramatic.Anthropic如何解释这一降速将至关重要。若增速放缓是因为市场份额被OpenAI或使用更廉价开源人工智能模型（即驱动聊天机器人以及生成视频、文本和代码工具的底层技术）的公司抢食，则意味着市场对人工智能服务的整体需求依旧健康；但若其放缓根源于全行业对人工智能产品的需求疲软，市场的反应恐将剧烈得多。Anthropic declined to comment. (The New York Times has sued OpenAI and Microsoft, claiming copyright infringement of news content related to A.I. systems. The two companies have denied those claims.)对此，Anthropic方面不予置评。（《纽约时报》此前已起诉OpenAI及微软，指控两家公司侵犯与人工智能系统相关的新闻内容版权；两家公司均否认了上述指控。）For the past year, Anthropic has been Silicon Valley’s hottest company, partly because of Claude Code, the service that transformed how software engineers write code. The company’s revenue soared, causing private market investors to drive up its valuation to $965 billion, topping OpenAI.过去一年中，Anthropic凭借革新软件工程师编程方式的Claude Code服务，成为硅谷最受瞩目的明星企业。公司营收呈爆发式增长，推动私募市场投资者将其估值推高至9650亿美元，超越OpenAI。5月于旧金山举办的Anthropic“Code W/ Claude”开发者活动。To meet the demand for its A.I. products, Anthropic struck deals worth hundreds of billions to lease computing power from Google, Amazon and Microsoft. It has also spent on chips from Nvidia and data centers from Nscale and others. The companies serving Anthropic are, in turn, shelling out money to their suppliers.为满足对其人工智能产品的需求，Anthropic达成了价值数千亿美元的协议，从谷歌、亚马逊和微软租用算力，同时还在英伟达的芯片和Nscale等企业的数据中心上耗费巨资。而服务于Anthropic的上下游企业，反过来又向各自的供应商投入大量资金。But over the summer, some Anthropic customers concluded they were spending too much on “tokens,” or units of data processed and generated by A.I. systems. They sought cheaper options. Meta, one of Anthropic’s largest customers, projected this year that it would spend as much as $10 billion a year on the company’s technology, but pulled back as it switched to other A.I. models.然而入夏以来，部分Anthropic客户意识到自己在人工智能系统处理与生成的数据单元（即“词元”）上的开支过于庞大，转而寻求低成本替代方案。Anthropic最大的客户之一Meta今年曾预计每年将在该公司的技术上花费高达100亿美元，但随着转向其他人工智能模型，这项支出已大幅收缩。Stocks of some A.I. companies that went public this year have wilted. Shares of Cerebras, a Silicon Valley maker of A.I. chips, have fallen roughly 40 percent from their offering price in May. Shares of Accelevation, an A.I. infrastructure company, are trading about a third lower than their $18 offering price in September. Elon Musk’s SpaceX, which went public in June, has also fallen far from its peak, though it remains roughly 9 percent above its offering price.与此同时，今年上市的部分人工智能企业股票已显现颓势。硅谷人工智能芯片制造商Cerebras的股价自5月发行以来已下挫约40%；人工智能基础设施企业Accelevation的交易价格较其9月18美元的发行价低了约三分之一；埃隆·马斯克旗下的太空探索技术公司虽于6月上市且仍较发行价高出约9%，但已自高点深度回撤。Against this backdrop, the market for initial public offerings has slowed. Holtec, which provides nuclear energy to the A.I. sector, withdrew its listing last month. SB Energy, a data center company controlled by SoftBank, one of OpenAI’s biggest backers, and Aggreko, a power company that works with data centers, have delayed their plans to go public.在此背景下，首次公开募股市场已明显降温。向人工智能行业供应核能电力的霍尔泰克于上月撤回了上市申请；获OpenAI最大金主之一软银控股的数据中心企业软银能源(SB Energy)、主营数据中心供电的亚力克(Aggreko)也纷纷推迟了IPO计划。A.I. infrastructure is a “dominant theme” of the I.P.O. market this year, said Matthew Kennedy, a senior strategist at Renaissance Capital, which tracks public listings. “It’s also been among the hardest hit by the sell-off these past few weeks.”追踪新股上市动态的复兴资本高级策略师马修·肯尼迪直言，人工智能基础设施是今年首次公开募股市场的“主导主题”，“但在过去几周的抛售潮中，该板块也是受创最严重的领域之一。”Bankers have warned companies that they may not get the valuations they were contemplating just two months ago. In an earnings call this month, David Solomon, the chief executive of Goldman Sachs, said that while the market for public offerings was “wide open,” companies seeking valuations close to those discussed this summer might choose to wait.投资银行家已警告各拟上市企业，它们可能无法获得仅两个月前设想的高估值。高盛首席执行官大卫·所罗门在本月的财报电话会议上表示，尽管首次公开募股市场依然“大门敞开”，但那些寻求接近今夏讨论估值的企业可能会选择等待。“Things got a little bit softer in September,” he said.“9月的行情确实偏软了一些，”他说。Anthropic’s revenue numbers have added to the doubts. The company had been expected to go public at a valuation as high as $2 trillion. But after seeing the slowing growth and the market doldrums, some investors have started discussing a valuation of $1.5 trillion to $1.7 trillion, according to one person with knowledge of the matter.Anthropic的营收数据进一步加重了外界的疑虑。该公司此前曾被预期以高达2万亿美元的估值上市；但据知情人士透露，在看到增速放缓和市场低迷后，部分投资者已开始探讨将估值目标调降至1.5万亿至1.7万亿美元区间。A.I. executives have been trying to provide reassurance. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, which supplies chips to the A.I. sector, saw “no ceiling” to its profits, its chief executive, C.C. Wei, said this month.面对市场担忧，人工智能产业界高管极力释出定心丸。为人工智能行业供应芯片的台积电首席执行官魏哲家本月表示，公司盈利“看不见天花板”。Late last week, amid growing concerns about A.I. spending, the markets fell further. The tech-heavy Nasdaq experienced its largest drop since June.上周晚些时候，在对人工智能基础设施支出的担忧日益加剧之际，市场进一步下跌。以科技股为主的纳斯达克指数创下了6月以来的最大跌幅。Sri Muppidi自旧金山、Joe Rennison自纽约对本文有报道贡献。Erin Griffith常驻旧金山，报道科技公司、初创企业和硅谷文化。Lauren Hirsch是《纽约时报》记者，报道华尔街和华盛顿的交易及其推手。翻译：经雷点击查看本文英文版。获取更多RSS：https://feedx.net https://feedx.site