The poll shows the gold outlook is being driven by the Iran war’s knock-on effects rather than by safe-haven buying. Higher oil prices have fed through to yields, the dollar and expectations that rates will stay high, which raises the cost of holding bullion. That makes crude a key upstream driver for gold: any easing in oil and yields, for example on progress in US-Iran talks, would remove one of the main headwinds analysts cite. Silver carries extra downside risk because its industrial exposure leaves it vulnerable to softer solar demand on top of the rate pressure. The forecast gap between the two metals favours gold over silver.---Earlier:UBS sees limited gold downside as three demand pillars set a floor near $4,000---The Iran war has turned gold’s usual crisis logic on its head, with oil-driven yields and a firm dollar doing the damage, but analysts are betting central banks will catch it on the way down.Summary:A Reuters poll of 30 analysts and traders put the median 2026 gold forecast at $4,495 an ounce, down from $4,509 three months agoThe 2027 gold forecast rose to around $4,650 from around $4,610Gold has fallen from a January record near $5,600 to around $4,000, on course for its biggest yearly drop in 11 yearsHigh yields, a strong dollar and higher-for-longer rate expectations, driven by the Iran war, are the main headwindsCentral bank purchases and physical demand from India and China are expected to provide supportSilver is forecast to average around $70 in 2026 and $67 in 2027, against a current price near $53, with weak solar demand weighingAnalysts have lowered their 2026 gold price forecast for a second consecutive quarter, citing high US Treasury yields, a strong dollar and expectations that interest rates will stay elevated for longer, though they still see prices recovering in 2027, according to a Reuters poll.The survey of 30 analysts and traders, conducted over three weeks, produced a median forecast of $4,495 an ounce for 2026, trimmed from $4,509 in the previous poll three months ago. The 2027 median rose to around $4,650 from around $4,610.The downgrade reflects a sharp reversal this year. Gold hit a record of around $5,600 an ounce in January but has since dropped to around $4,000. The Iran war pushed oil prices and Treasury yields higher and lifted the dollar, all of which reduced the appeal of bullion, an asset that pays no interest. Gold is now on course for its steepest annual decline in 11 years.Even so, analysts see support building. Standard Chartered expects prices to consolidate and then recover over the coming months as investor attention turns to de-dollarisation and currency debasement. Respondents also pointed to strong central bank buying and solid physical demand. One analyst said that, barring an unexpected shock, steadier physical buying in India and China should underpin prices. The same analyst argued that continued central bank purchases send a signal about how official institutions are managing risk, which matters more than the volume of gold they buy.The outlook for silver is weaker. Analysts expect it to average around $70 an ounce this year and around $67 in 2027, though that would still be above the current price near $53. Because silver is both a precious and an industrial metal, it is more exposed than gold to higher-for-longer rates. Respondents cited softer demand from the solar sector, substitution in manufacturing and cautious investor sentiment after this year’s wild swings, which included a record high of around $122 in January. With solar oversupplied and sentiment toward AI under pressure, silver is expected to underperform gold, and heavy ETF outflows this year have left the market in surplus.The path for both metals now hinges largely on whether yields and the dollar ease from current levels. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.