Palladium: 66% Odds It Revisits 1,002 Before 1,025PalladiumOANDA:XPDUSDTrade-LeanThree numbers for palladium this week. 66%: the share of the 500 closest historical weeks that tagged 1,001.93 (S0.618) before 1,025.55 (S0.382). 61%: reached 993.52 (S0.702) before the week ended. 47%: went as far as 985.11 (S0.786). The week so far Last week ran from 1,127.34 to 1,027.24 and closed at 1,036.77, so this week's pivot is 1,063.78. Palladium never got near it. Monday topped at 1,054.49, Tuesday broke S0.382 at 1,025.55, and an overnight push back to 1,031.38 failed. Today it printed a new weekly low at 998.73 and sits near 1,006. How the 500 weeks were picked Same point in the week, same spot on the weekly grid, same high and low so far, across metals, FX, indices, stocks and other assets on daily data. My forecast: another dip under 1,002, with 993.52 as the realistic target by Friday. Wrong if: 1,025.55 comes first. Honest note: the weekly close is less one-sided. 43% of the analogues closed below 1,001.93, 29% between 1,001.93 and 1,025.55, and 28% back above it. So this is a call on the next swing, not on the close. Context: my platinum quarterly short from Tuesday already hit 1,485, and both metals are lagging gold this week. These are historical frequencies, not certainty. On weekly grids built from daily data, the engine's 65%+ calls came first about 69% of the time out of sample.