For oil, the report adds a two-way risk ahead of next week’s midterms. A credible negotiating channel offers the first sign in months that Hormuz shipping could eventually be unlocked, which would ease the supply premium. But the contacts cover only a framework, and Trump continues to signal strikes. That leaves the market exposed to a sharp upside move if talks fail and an attack follows. Rezaei’s recent threats against the UAE add another layer of Gulf supply risk, so traders are likely to keep paying for protection until there is clarity on Trump’s decision.---Washington is talking to Tehran’s hard-liners in private while threatening war in public, and the oil market has to price both.Summary:Vance sent a letter to Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, reportedly at Trump’s directionThe aim is to find enough common ground to dissuade Trump from ordering a short, intense strike in the coming weeksContacts have focused on a negotiating framework, not specific peace terms, and Rezaei says core demands must be met firstTrump has publicly denied negotiating and says he expects a return to war after the midtermsA June memorandum of understanding collapsed over Strait of Hormuz shipping, and talks via Qatar and Pakistan remain deadlockedThe US blockade of Iranian ports continues, and oil flows through Hormuz have not been enough to ease high energy pricesUS Vice President JD Vance has written to one of Iran’s most powerful hard-liners in an attempt to revive stalled peace talks, even as President Donald Trump signals that a return to war could follow next week’s midterm elections, the Wall Street Journal (gated) reported, citing US officials and people familiar with the matter.According to the report, Vance sent the letter to Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council and formerly the longest-serving commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. One person said the letter was sent at Trump’s direction, and the president is aware of the outreach. The aim is to test whether enough common ground exists to dissuade Trump from ordering a short, intense strike on Iran in the coming weeks.The contacts so far have reportedly focused on a possible framework for negotiations rather than the details of a peace proposal. Rezaei said last week that Tehran would not negotiate until certain core demands were met. Some US officials believe engaging the hard-liners, who have gained influence since US and Israeli strikes killed regime leaders at the start of the war, could produce a better diplomatic outcome.The outreach sits awkwardly with Trump’s public stance. Last week he said Washington was not negotiating with Iran and suggested strikes were coming soon, and on the campaign trail he has said he expects a return to war. On Tuesday he accused Tehran of stalling, possibly in hope of an election result that he said would not help it.Diplomacy has repeatedly broken down. A memorandum of understanding agreed in June fell apart within two weeks over differing interpretations of how to reopen shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. Talks through mediators Qatar and Pakistan remain deadlocked, with Washington seeking upfront nuclear concessions and Tehran demanding immediate economic relief. A US blockade of Iranian ports remains in place, and while some oil continues to move through the strait, flows have not been enough to ease high energy prices.Rezaei has taken a hawkish line, warning earlier this month that Iran could target the United Arab Emirates as well as data centres and internet cables across the region. On Sunday, however, he met security chiefs from Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Turkey in Tehran as all sides sought de-escalation. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Iran remained ready to defend itself but was still giving diplomacy a chance.The political stakes are high in Washington too. Republicans are bracing for losses in Congress, with voters citing the war and rising fuel costs, and Vance is the early front-runner for the party’s 2028 presidential nomination. Whether this channel can produce a framework before Trump makes a final decision on strikes is now the key question for both the conflict and energy markets. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.