NVDA 2HRS: Fed and Big Tech Earnings Keep Me BearishNVIDIA CorporationBATS:NVDAEmpressBTCI’m using the fair value gap (FVG) near $220 to $222 and the support zone at $211 to $212. Price pushed into the FVG and failed to hold it, which is a sign sellers are still defending that area, and now it is drifting back toward support. On the chart, the bounce from $210 made a lower high under $222, and after-hours price is slipping to $213.80. I expect one more dip into support, a weak bounce, and then a break lower. My target is the $197 to $198 zone, the gap left behind by the August breakout. Today’s news adds up to a cautious tape. The Fed held rates at 3.75% to 4% in a 10-2 vote, with Cook and Hammack dissenting in favor of a hike, and said inflation remains elevated. Markets have also priced in a rate hike in December. Stocks closed higher but weakened late in the session as war risk in the Middle East rose. FOMC holds rates steady, markets mostly follow suit The earnings were mixed for AI. Microsoft beat with EPS of $4.89 on $92.28B in revenue, and the stock rose about 4% after hours. That is good for Nvidia, because cloud spending is its revenue. But Alphabet fell 9% as free cash flow turned negative at $9.07B and it said capex will rise significantly in 2027. The market is now punishing AI spending that doesn’t pay back fast enough, and that keeps a lid on Nvidia. The bull case is real. Nvidia announced a $3 billion investment in Meta’s equity offering on Oct 26, and a $150 billion buyback plan sits behind the stock, which has traded sideways for six months. A strong close above $222 would break my idea. I will be looking for a first reaction at $212, then target at $197 to $198 as the main level. Daily close above $222 cancels it. I don’t chase breaks, I wait for the retest.