Oil retreats as Iran diplomacy eases fears of further supply disruptions

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(Oil & Gas 360) – Oil prices declined Thursday, October 29, as renewed diplomatic efforts involving the United States and Iran reduced immediate concerns about further Middle East supply disruptions, although continued attacks on regional infrastructure and commercial shipping kept crude benchmarks above $100 per barrel.Brent crude futures fell $1.55, or 1.34%, to $113.77 per barrel by 1314 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate declined $2, or 1.95%, to $100.78. The retreat reversed part of Wednesday’s gains, as Brent increased 1.3%, and WTI rose 3%.The decline followed reports that Vice President JD Vance contacted Iranian security official Mohsen Rezaei to reopen negotiations. Qatari mediators also presented Tehran with a proposed framework for ending the conflict involving the United States, Israel, and Iran.An Iranian official described the latest proposal as unacceptable, while Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi indicated that Tehran remained willing to pursue diplomacy.Despite the renewed discussions, military tensions continued across the region.The Saudi-led coalition reported intercepting a ballistic missile directed toward eastern Saudi Arabia early Thursday. The incident followed Houthi claims of an attack against the kingdom’s Ras Tanura refinery, although damage to the facility had not been independently confirmed.Yemeni government forces also reported an attack on Aden airport Wednesday.Meanwhile, Iran’s Revolutionary Guards claimed that three tankers struck sea mines near the Strait of Hormuz and caught fire. The reported incidents added uncertainty surrounding commercial shipping through one of the world’s most important petroleum transportation corridors.Additional downward pressure came from expectations of recovering Russian refinery activity.JPMorgan analysts reported that Russian refinery throughput increased approximately 350,000 barrels per day last week to 4 million barrels per day following a period without confirmed attacks on refining facilities.Higher refinery utilization could increase Russian diesel supplies, although it does not necessarily translate into additional crude exports.U.S. petroleum inventory data presented a mixed picture.The Energy Information Administration reported a 1.9 million-barrel decline in commercial crude inventories for the week ended October 23, compared with expectations for a slight increase. Distillate inventories also declined, while gasoline inventories increased by 3.9 million barrels.For energy investors, these developments illustrate the competing pressures influencing crude prices.Diplomatic progress could reduce the geopolitical premium supporting benchmarks, while renewed military activity could disrupt production, refining, and transportation operations.Upstream producers may benefit from sustained elevated prices, but refiners face changing crude acquisition costs, product margins, and shipping expenses.The market’s direction will depend increasingly on whether diplomatic discussions produce measurable improvements in regional security and petroleum transportation.Until those conditions stabilize, crude prices are likely to remain sensitive to developments affecting the Strait of Hormuz, Saudi infrastructure, and international fuel supplies.Disclaimer This informational, opinion, and insights article is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment, legal, or financial advice. The views expressed are based on publicly available information and market conditions at the time of publication and are subject to change without notice.