艾莎, MURPHY ZHAO2026年10月28日中国国家主席习近平召集了高级领导人，以制定政府的施政纲领，但经济问题很可能要让位于政治问题。 Florence Lo/ReutersAs investor pessimism pushed China’s stock market into a bear market last week, officials responded as they often do, deploying a group of state-owned funds to arrest the slide.随着上周投资者悲观情绪将中国股市推入熊市，官员们采取了惯常的应对措施，调集了一批国有基金来遏制跌势。The group of Beijing-backed investment companies, known colloquially as the “national team,” pumped $6.8 billion into stocks in a single session last Thursday, providing a temporary reprieve to a market that had fallen for 11 straight weeks.这批由北京支持的投资公司——俗称“国家队”——在上周四的单日交易中向股市注入了68亿美元，为连续11周下跌的市场提供了暂时的喘息机会。Mainland stocks are down more than 20 percent from a recent peak — the threshold for a bear market.大陆股市已从近期高点下跌超过20%，这正是熊市的临界点。But this time, investors are signaling that the old playbook may not be enough. By Tuesday, markets fell again, declining 1.3 percent. Stocks in China are among the worst performers in Asia this year, along with Indonesia and India.但这一次，投资者发出的信号表明，旧有的应对套路可能不再管用。到了周二，市场再次下跌1.3%。中国、印尼和印度股市是今年亚洲表现最差的几个市场。The intervention may have helped to “prop up the market,” said Shi Shusi, a financial commentator with 2.6 million followers on Chinese social media. But, he added, “it couldn’t prop up investors’ confidence.”在中国的社交媒体上有260万粉丝的财经评论员石述思表示，这种干预可能有助于“托得住盘面”。但他还说，“却托不住人心。”The effort to stabilize stocks came just days before Xi Jinping, China’s leader, convened one of the country’s most important political meetings of the year. Hundreds of the Communist Party’s most senior officials are meeting to set the government agenda. While economic policy has traditionally been a priority at such gatherings, many observers expect it to take a back seat to politics this year.稳定股市的努力发生在中国领导人习近平召开今年国家最重要政治会议的几天前。数百名共产党最高级别官员正聚在一起，制定政府议程。虽然经济政策历来是此类会议的重点，但许多观察人士预计，今年的经济政策将让位于政治议题。The market sell-off reflects a deeper unease about China’s economy and growing doubts about whether policymakers are doing enough to turn things around. China’s manufacturing juggernaut has powered a surge in exports, sustaining economic growth and helping Beijing meet its targets.股市抛售反映了人们对中国经济更深层次的不安，以及对政策制定者是否采取了足够措施来扭转局面日渐怀疑。中国的制造巨轮推动了出口的激增，维持了经济增长，并帮助北京实现了既定目标。But that strength has obscured persistent weakness at home.但这种强势掩盖了国内持续的疲软。Wage growth is slowing. Companies are struggling to raise prices. And households, whose savings are largely tied up in real estate, continue to see their wealth eroded by falling home prices.工资增长正在放缓。企业难以提高价格。而积蓄大部分与房地产挂钩的家庭，财富继续因房价下跌而遭受侵蚀。上海陆家嘴金融区的天际线。中国官员一直致力于安抚市场，但投资者希望看到更多实质性举措。“If the government keeps pumping money in, we will see short-term gains, but this will not continue,” said Gary Ng, a senior economist for Asia Pacific with Natixis Corporate & Investment Banking, referring to the national team, which also intervened in July to steady the market.“如果政府继续注入资金，我们会看到短期上涨，但这不会持续下去，”法国外贸银行企业与投资银行部亚太区高级经济学家吴卓殷在提到“国家队”时表示，“国家队”在今年7月也曾介入市场以稳定行情。“The government will try to set a floor here, but whether there could be a strong momentum for rebound will take a lot more than what we see right now,” he added.“政府会试图在这里设定一个底线，但要产生强劲的反弹势头，所需要的远比我们现在看到的要多，”他还说。For many investors, the bigger concern is that Mr. Xi seems more focused on his political aims than on stimulating growth. That priority is on display this week as officials meet to lay the groundwork for his fourth term as party leader.对许多投资者来说，更大的担忧在于，习近平似乎更专注于其政治目标而非刺激增长。本周，随着官员们齐聚一堂为其第四个党内领导任期奠定基础，这一优先事项已显而易见。Beijing has intensified an anti-corruption campaign that ensnares around one million officials each year. Under Mr. Xi, China has tightened scrutiny of money flowing overseas and stepped up regulatory and antitrust actions against prominent companies.北京已加强反腐败行动，每年约有100万名官员因此受查。在习近平的领导下，中国加强了对资金流向海外的监管，并加大了对知名企业的监管和反垄断行动。Those measures have unnerved entrepreneurs, analysts said, adding to uncertainty about the business environment.分析人士表示，这些措施让企业家感到不安，加剧了商业环境的不确定性。Local governments have also pulled back subsidies and tax breaks, making companies more cautious about investing.地方政府也削减了补贴和税收优惠，使企业在投资方面变得更加谨慎。Some of the sharpest declines in recent weeks have come from artificial intelligence companies, once among the market’s biggest sources of optimism.最近几周，部分跌幅最剧烈的股票来自人工智能公司，这些公司曾是市场最大的乐观情绪来源之一。Shares of Cambricon Technologies, a state-backed chipmaker seen as a Chinese rival to Nvidia, have fallen more than 10 percent over the past month. The CSI Artificial Intelligence Index, which tracks leading Chinese A.I. companies, has dropped 19 percent over the same period.寒武纪科技是国家支持的芯片制造商，被视为英伟达的中国竞争对手，其股价在过去一个月中下跌了超过10%。跟踪中国主要人工智能公司的中证人工智能指数在同一时期下跌了19%。Investors are now searching for signs that Beijing will go beyond buying stocks and introduce broader measures to revive the economy.投资者目前正在寻找迹象，看北京是否会超越单纯的购买股票，推出更广泛的举措来振兴经济。“We’re reaching the pain point where officials feel they must intervene,” said Christopher Beddor, deputy director of China research at Gavekal Dragonomics.“我们正在达到官员们认为必须干预的痛点，”佳富龙洲中国研究副总监克里斯托弗·贝多尔表示。In 2024, China’s central bank unveiled a sweeping package of measures to bolster confidence and stimulate growth. It cut short-term interest rates and freed up state-controlled banks to lend more. At a rare news conference, the central bank governor signaled that it could provide further support.2024年，中国央行公布了一揽子全面措施以提振信心和刺激增长。它下调了短期利率，并允许国有银行增加贷款。在一次罕见的新闻发布会上，央行行长暗示可能会提供进一步的支持。Stocks surged, posting their biggest gains since the 2008 financial crisis.股市大涨，创下了自2008年金融危机以来的最大涨幅。中国证券监督管理委员会主席吴清试图向投资者保证，政府正在维护市场稳定。But analysts are skeptical that policymakers will adopt the same approach this time. Even large purchases by the national team are no substitute for the wide-ranging stimulus investors have long hoped for.但分析人士对政策制定者这次是否会采取同样的做法持怀疑态度。即使是“国家队”的大规模购买，也无法替代投资者长期以来所期待的全面刺激计划。Instead, Chinese officials have focused on reassuring markets.相反，中国官员将重点放在了抚平市场情绪上。Speaking at a forum last week, Wu Qing, chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, told investors that market steadiness remained a priority. The government was “making every effort to safeguard the security and stability of the capital market,” he said.中国证监会主席吴清上周在一次论坛上表示，市场稳定仍是一项优先事项。他说，政府正在“全力维护资本市场安全稳定”。State media have amplified the message.官方媒体进一步强化了这一信息。On the same day, China’s state broadcaster declared that “positive signs are increasing,” and that “the basis for market resilience remains firmly in place.”同一天，中国国家广播电视台宣布“积极信号在增多”，“市场韧性基础仍然扎实”。The People’s Daily, the Communist Party’s official newspaper, also struck an upbeat tone this week, pointing to China’s “reasonable” economic growth despite geopolitical conflicts and a fragile global economy.共产党的官方报纸《人民日报》本周也表达了乐观基调，指出尽管存在地缘冲突和全球经济脆弱的局面，中国仍实现了“合理”的经济增长。Emphasizing the importance of “high-quality development,” the article described growth as a “long-term endeavor,” warning that “winds and rains are inevitable along the way.”该文章在强调“高质量发展”的重要性时，将增长描述为一项“长期过程”，并警告称“前进道路上难免有风有雨”。艾莎(Alexandra Stevenson)是时报记者，主要报道中国经济及其在全球的影响。翻译：纽约时报中文网点击查看本文英文版。