Elliott Wave Analysis – XAUUSD | October 28, 2026GoldOANDA:XAUUSDWavePoint_FX D1 Timeframe Yesterday's bullish move has not yet brought any significant structural changes to the D1 timeframe. However, the current recovery could continue for another 1–2 days. We need to monitor D1 momentum as it recovers from oversold toward overbought territory and observe where price is positioned at that point. With this additional information, it will be easier to identify the next wave structure. In terms of price action, the current upward movement is attempting to rebalance the previously formed Fair Value Gap (FVG). As mentioned in yesterday's analysis, there are three important levels to monitor: the upper boundary, the lower boundary, and the 50% level of the FVG. For now, our focus is on the 50% FVG level. Price has already reached this area, suggesting that a new bearish move could begin. Based on the current market conditions, to confirm the first structural shift toward a new bullish trend, we need to see a stronger upward move with price closing above the recent swing high at 4220. If this happens, we will move to lower timeframes to identify bullish Order Blocks (OBs), particularly those located below the FVG, and look for potential BUY entries. However, at this stage, I still favor the bearish scenario. H4 Timeframe H4 momentum is currently turning bearish, suggesting that a downward move lasting approximately 3–5 H4 candles could begin. Elliott Wave Structure: The ABC corrective pattern will be confirmed once price breaks below the wave B low at 3990. This would increase the probability of wave 5 continuing its downward development. The current recovery has extended relatively high but has not yet entered wave 1 territory. Therefore, we can still consider it a valid wave 4. However, since this recovery has exceeded the typical characteristics of wave 4, we should also prepare an alternative scenario. Assuming that wave 4 has already completed, I have adjusted the projected targets for wave 5: First target: The wave 3 low, which aligns with the 0.382 Fibonacci projection of waves 1–3. Second target: The 3933 area, corresponding to the 0.618 Fibonacci projection of waves 1–3. However, to strengthen this bearish scenario, price must first move below the wave A high and then continue breaking below the wave B low. These are the key conditions we need to monitor to confirm the potential continuation of wave 5. H1 Timeframe Price has now reached a bearish Order Block (OB). Looking at the previous bearish wave marked on the chart, we can see that price has retraced to the 50% Fibonacci level. This means price has entered the Premium zone, which also overlaps with a bearish Order Block. On the H1 timeframe, we have already observed a break of structure (BOS), accompanied by a strong bearish candle. If the current H1 candle fails to fully retrace the body of the previous bearish candle, leaving the newly formed FVG intact, then the 4054 area could become a key level where we anticipate further bearish continuation. That concludes today's market analysis. Your support is a great source of motivation for me! If you find this analysis helpful, don't forget to leave a like 🚀 and share your thoughts in the comments.